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Archive for August, 2013

Movie Review: Trouble with the Curve

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(Slow news week; i’m posting some posts that have been sitting in draft mode for a while).

As mentioned in my previous baseball movie review, we’re a bit behind on watching movies.  If it weren’t for DVRs, I don’t think we’d have any idea what was going on in the modern entertainment world.  After writing the review of the movie 42, I suddenly remembered that we also recently saw Clint Eastwood‘s Trouble with the Curve.  So lets dive in with a review.

Story and Acting: I did not like the story, all in all.

Yes, we get it.  Moneyball (and Billy Beane) invented modern stats-based scouting.  But did it have to be so ham-handedly rammed down our throats?  The entire storyline revolves around the fact that Eastwood’s character is an old-school baseball scout, and he’s old.  Meanwhile the scouting office is apparently run by an uber stat-guy (played by Matthew Lillard, currently starring in the new series The Bridge on AMC) who has the ear of the owner.  But lets face it; if you’ve got a top 3 first round pick, we’re talking millions of dollars and a significant portion of your franchise’s near-immediate future at stake.  You’re not just sending one scout; you’re sending your area scout, your cross checker, your scouting director and your General Manager.

Not to mention, you absolutely cannot depend on stats alone when scouting high school players.  There’s so much variation in talent between teams, even in good baseball areas, that statistics are completely deceiving.  Keith Law mentioned a time where he went to a HS game in Georgia to scout a guy and, during warmups, the opposing team had a 3rd baseman who literally could not throw the ball across the diamond.  The prospect’s team was ahead 15-0 after three innings and the slaughter rule was put into effect.  What value would those stats have for that prospect, good or bad?  College guys are favorites of sabre-slanted scouting directors because there’s a known body of work.  If a guy plays in (say) the SEC, you know what kind of competition he plays against on a week in/week out basis and can properly judge his stat line.

The story needlessly made the star slugger an arrogant, entitled jerk.  He could just as well have been portrayed as a shy kid who wasn’t aware of his own skills or limitations.  The villian wasn’t the draftee; it was the front office executive who undermined Eastwood.  I guess the counter argument would be that if the draftee wasn’t a bad kid he’d have to be a good kid, and then you’d be rooting for him and against Eastwood’s interpretation of his limitations.

Did the Amy Adams character have to be undermined by a younger, whiter guy?  Did they have to add in blatant sexism to this story?  Couldn’t have Adam’s character just taken off from work with some implicit pushback from management in order to make the story work?

Another problem: do we really think that scouts “keep tabs” on “their guys” after they start playing?  If you’re an area scout in the rural mid-atlantic, you don’t have time to take in random minor league games to track your players.  You’re on the road every day scouting players and burning the road trying to get to the next game.  I found that to be somewhat unbelievable.

I’m not even bothering to mention the Justin Timberlake character, whose inclusion added nothing except a cheap romance storyline for the ladies.  I guess that’s a good enough reason.

Lastly, what did the “finding of the janitor” have to do with this story?  That made no sense; you could have made the point that the high draft pick couldn’t hit a curveball  just as easily by having him whiffing on curveballs being thrown by a BP pitcher.  After watching the climactic scene you could have easily have asked, “well is he missing the curve because its so amazing, or because he can’t hit a curve?”   I suppose the plot device was there to enable the Adams character an out of her lawyer job, serving as the janitor’s agent.

Baseball Sequences:

The climax of the movie is about a scouting sublety; watching a hitter’s hands moving when he’s faced with a breaking pitch.  This leads to the title of the movie and to the prospect’s downfall at the end.  That’s great and all, but difficult to show, especially in an actor playing a baseball player and not a player himself.

I’d be curious to see the draftee’s stat line in this movie; he seemed to go 15-15 with 15 homers in play sequences.  I guess it wasn’t enough to just show this kid getting hits; he had to be the best slugger of all time in po-dunk North Carolina or wherever they were supposed to be playing.

Otherwise, there really wasn’t much actuall baseball to watch here; it was a “baseball movie” in topic only.

Conclusion:

A poor movie.  I’m surprised Eastwood came out of acting retirement so that he could reprise his Gran Torino gruffy, grunting character and put him on a baseball field instead of a run down neighborhood in Detroit.  I like Eastwood, I like his movies and wanted to like this one.  But I just could not.

I know its probably been a few months (years?) since you’ve seen the movie, but what did you guys think?

 

Written by Todd Boss

August 13th, 2013 at 8:46 am

MVP Races getting interesting…

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I usually don’t do post-season award analysis until, well, the post-season.  But this year the MVP races seem like they could end up being really interesting.  So lets take a look at who’s in the hunt.

The MVP candidates year in and year out generally are chosen by the voters using these criterion (fair or not):

  1. Best player on the Best teams
  2. Outstanding performances from players on non-playoff teams.
  3. Generally position players, except in a year when no position player really stands out.
  4. East Coast Bias.

I’m not going to get into an argument about whether the “MVP” means the “best player” or “most valuable” here.  I’ll leave that to the multitude of other people who can’t get over this distinction.  For me, the “MVP” still is a subjective award not entirely driven by the guy with the best WAR on the season.  There are plenty who cannot get over the fact that Mike Trout had s uch a fantastic statistical season last year and didn’t win the MVP.  Not me; I don’t see how you can be the “MVP” of a league when your team finishes 20 games out of first.

If the season ended today, your 5 playoff teams per league would be:

  • NL: Divisional Winners Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles with St. Louis and Cincinnati meeting in the wild card game.
  • AL: Divisional winners Boston, Detroit and Oakland with Tampa Bay and Texas meeting in the wild card game.

The NL playoff picture seems mostly set; the two wild card leaders have a decent lead on Arizona that seems, well not insurmountable but surprisingly strong.  The AL picture is a bit more unsettled; lots can still  happen in the AL East, and there’s three teams within 4.5 games of the wild card right now (Cleveland, Baltimore and Kansas City).  And that’s to say nothing of the Yankees, who are in the hunt but seem more of a sideshow these days than a contender.

So, using these guidelines, lets look at the leading players that are likely to be in the MVP race.  All stats are as of 8/10/13.  Per team, lets look at the “leading” player both statistically and “honorarily.”

Lets start with the NL:

  • Atlanta: Andrelton Simmons leads the team in bWAR, with almost all of it coming on the defensive side of the ball.   He’s hitting .243 and your voter base just doesn’t have an appreciation for defensive exploits just quite yet.  Justin Upton started out scorching hot and still has great stats on the year, but has cooled so significantly that I don’t believe Atlanta has an MVP candidate.  They have 4-5 really solid hitters and solid pitching driving them to their divisional title.
  • Pittsburgh: it begins and ends with Andrew McCutchen, a serious leader for the award right now.  He’s tied for the league lead in bWAR and is having an outstanding season.  Starling Marte has broken out this year but nobody denies that this is McCutchen’s team.  Pedro Alvarez leads the NL in homers but is otherwise good, but not great, in other offensive statistics.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasiel Puig leads the team’s hitters in bWAR while taking the league by storm, but he’s only slightly ahead of Hanley Ramirez, who is having a relatively quiet break through season.  But neither guy has played in half the team’s games, leaving a lot of pundits to call for Clayton Kershaw, who is tied with McCutchen for the NL lead in bWAR to get MVP votes.  While I don’t advocate this scenario, it would not surprise me to see Kershaw win the Cy Young and get a top-5 MVP finish.
  • St Louis: Yadier Molina continues to be the transcendent catcher in the NL and is the “spiritual leader” of the Cardinals, but he has gone down with injury and may be losing MVP steam.  He no longer even leads his own team in bWAR (Matt Carpenter does), but remains a good candidate.
  • Cincinnati: the obvious candidate here is Joey Votto, But something seems like Cincinnati’s scuffling as of late combined with the flashier candidates out there will lead to Votto getting votes but not the award.

Other NL Candidates to consider:

  • Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt is in the top-10 in league bWAR for the Diamondbacks, but unless this team makes a huge run to the playoffs he’s merely going to be a top-10 vote getter.
  • Milwaukee’s Carlos Gomez is tied for the league lead in bWAR, but his streakiness and his team’s place in the standings is going to make it tough for him to get anything other than a top 10 finish.
  • New York‘s David Wright is also putting together a great season, sitting in the top 10 in league bWAR almost entirely on the back of his bat (surprising given his prowness at third).  As with Gomez, the Mets position in the standings hurts him badly.  And his recent D/L trip (which seems like it may end his season) ends his chances.

My opinion of the NL voting right now: McCutchen, Kershaw, Molina, Votto, Gomez.


Over in the American league, the playoff situation may be murky, but the MVP race is pretty straight-forward.  There is a lot to shake out in terms of the playoff positions and the candidates from those teams don’t seem to stand out as much.  But as with 2012, there are two leading MVP candidates and we seem set to have the same arguments this year as last.  But lets go team by team:

  • Boston is being led by their two best players, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.  They are both top-10 in bWAR and are having excellent seasons.  Voters likely won’t be able to tell between them and they’ll split the vote with both guys getting top-10 MVP seasons.
  • Detroit: Is there any question?  Miguel Cabrera, who despite negative defensive bWAR is leading the AL.  Max Scherzer will get serious Cy Young consideration but not MVP votes, not with Cabrera and other candidates.
  • Oakland: Jody Donaldson has become the latest “who is that?” player that Oakland has found to drive them to a pennant in a division they have no business competing in.  But east-coast bias and lack of star-power will work against him.
  • Tampa Bay: It has to be Evan Longoria, once again, the face of the franchise.  But as with year’s past, he’s toiling in relative obscurity in front of half the fans that should be supporting a team this good.  And a lot of credit will go towards Wil Myers‘ call-up, taking away Longoria votes.
  • Texas: the story of Adrian Beltre‘s career; he’s a darn good player and nobody gives him enough credit.  Texas has shed many of its name players over the past few seasons, but Beltre continues to provide great value on both sides of the ball.  The transcendant player on Texas this year is Yu Darvish, who will struggle in the Cy Young race (subject of anohter post).

Other AL Candidates to consider:

  • Baltimore may very well sneak into a WC slot as they did last year, entirely on the backs of two guys.  Chris Davis is having a great power season while Manny Machado is having a historic 20-year old season in general.  Both guys have top-10 bWAR seasons and, as with the Boston guys, may split votes here.  Machado in particular looks like he’s already put himself in the “Trout-Harper” discussion for most transcendent young player in the game.
  • Los Angeles Angels: Here we go again.  Mike Trout has put “sophomore slump” naysayers to shame, posting as good or better numbers across the board in 2013.  Interestingly, Trout’s defensive component in 2013 is significantly hurting him whereas in 2012 it gave him a huge boost; his defensive component in bWAR is actually *negative* for 2013.  A topic for another day, the ridiculous swings we see in defensive advanced stats.  In any case, as with 2012 I think Trout’s team’s underperforming will hurt him and he will lose out again.  It is what it is.

My opinion of the AL voting right now: Cabrera, Trout, and then I have no idea.  Right now I’d probably go Machado, Ellsbury and Davis.

 


There’s still a lot of season to go, so lots could still happen. But I’m putting early markers on McCutchen and Cabrera. Both well deserved.

Virginia Little League loses in Regional Final

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The LLWS slogan on one of the fields in Williamsport. Photo my own circa Oct 2011.

The Virginia State champ Tuckahoe American Little League from Henrico (West Richmond) made it to the Southeast regional final before losing to Tennessee 5-3 in the championship game on ESPN last night 8/9/13.   A disappointing loss for Virginia, who had beaten the same team in pool play earlier in the regional.   Tennessee will now represent the region in the 2013 Little League World Series (LLWS) in Williamsport, PA.  If you’ve never seen the facilities in Williamsport, they are fantastic and a worthy place to watch a baseball game, youngsters or not.

Tuckahoe had cruised through the Virginia State tournament, beating West Springfield in the final and outscoring opponents 35-3 along the way.   They also cruised relatively unscathed to the regional championship before Tennessee got their revenge.

Virginia has not placed a team in the LLWS 1994, when South Central Springfield made it to Williamsport and lost in the US final.

Tuckahoe is quite a Virginia Little League powerhouse; 4 state championships since 2001 and a 3 time regional champion/Little League World Series participant.

My own quasi-personal connection/interest to Little League right now stems from my 12-year old alumni year in 1983, when my home Vienna Little League all-star team handily won the state and then lost in the regional final to eventual LLWS champs Marietta, Georgia.  Our home-team lost on an error in the bottom of the 6th, letting in two runs to turn a 3-2 lead into a 4-3 loss.  Vienna has made one LLWS appearance back in the early 70s but is still a great program and I hope one day my own child can play in the system.

 

Written by Todd Boss

August 10th, 2013 at 10:24 am

Posted in Local Baseball

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Would you rather have Houston or Durham’s rotation, revisited

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At the beginning of the season, Houston’s MLB rotation looked so weak that I asked in this space whether you would prefer to have the Houston Astros MLB rotation or the Durham Bulls (AAA affiliate of Tampa) Opening Day rotation?

Now, more than 2/3’s the way through the season, lets take another look.  Here’s some quick links for reference: Houston’s B-R stats, Tampa’s B-R stats, Houston’s Fangraphs Stats, Tampa’s Fangraphs stats and MILB’s Durham stats.

All stats as of 8/6/13.

So, here’s how Houston’s opening day rotation has performed thus far:

Rank Name Age 2013 Stats as of 8/6/13 Notes
1 Bud Norris 28 (MLB) 7-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.394 whip, 106 ERA+, 3.95 fip Traded to Baltmore
2 Lucas Harrell 28 (MLB) 5-12, 5.37 ERA, 1.668 whip, 76 ERA+, 5.41 fip Demoted to bullpen July 9th
3 Philip Humber 30 (MLB) 0-8, 9.59 ERA, 2.019 whip, 43 ERA+, 5.81 fip Demoted to AAA May 11th
4 Erik Bedard 34 (MLB) 3-8, 4.29 ERA, 1.44 whip, 96 ERA+, 4.42 fip Team is 6-14 in his starts
5 Brad Peacock 25 (MLB) 1-4, 7.25 ERA, 1.583 whip, 57 ERA+, 6.57 fip Demoted to AAA April 30th

Here I see one #4 starter (Norris), one #5 starter (Bedard), one guy who wouldn’t make any other team’s rotations (Harrell) and two abject failures in Humber and our own former farmhand Peacock (though it should be noted, Peacock just got recalled, threw 7 innings of 3-run ball, struck out 10 guys and lowered his ERA nearly a full point).

Now, here’s the same stats for Durham’s opening day rotation, showing MLB stats where I could:

Rank Name Age 2013 Stats as of 8/6/13 Notes
1 Chris Archer 24 (MLB) 6-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.085 whip, 144 ERA+, 4.22 whip Promoted June 1, 12 starts thus far
2 Jake Odorizzi 23 (AAA Dur): 8-5, 3.73 ERA, 1.20 whip Has 3 spot starts in May and June with a 6.00 ERA in 18 MLB innings
3 Alex Colome 25 (AAA Dur): 4-6, 3.07 ERA, 1.31 whip 3 spot starts in May/June with a 2.25 ERA in 16 mlb innings
4 Mike Montgomery 23 (AAA Dur): 46-5, 4.28 ERA, 1.43 whip injured earlier in year, in minors all year.
5 Alex Torres 25 (MLB) 4-0 0.26 ERA, 0.612 whip, 1470 ERA+, 1.64 fip Has given up 1 ER in 34 MLB innings pitching out of the pen.

Durham’s opening day rotation has matriculated one mainstay to the Tampa rotation in Chris Archer (he has the best adjusted ERA+ of any of Tampa’s rotation right now) and a second guy in Alex Torres who has given up exactly one run in 34 mlb innings this year.  Alex Colome had three effective spot starts, Jake Odorizzi had 3 relatively ineffective MLB spot starts, and Mike Montgomery missed some time with an injury and has not yet debuted.  It should be noted that both Odorizzi and Montgomery are just 23 and still a bit young for the big stage.

So, which rotation would you rather have now?  It isn’t like the Ray’s AAA guys Montgomery or Odorizzi could do any worse than what Houston’s 4th and 5th starters did this season.  And you can clearly see that Archer’s performance trumps Norris’, and Torres’ amazing bullpen work is better than Bedard’s 96 ERA+ work.

The Rays continue to have the best pitching development system in the majors, even ahead of St. Louis, who turns out mid-90s hurler after mid-90s hurler.

 

 

First Look: Tanner Roark

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Tanner Roark living the dream.  Photo via milb.com

Tanner Roark living the dream. Photo via milb.com

A few days ago I was playing amateur GM and ended up predicting the 8/6/13 roster moves, where Ross Detwiler was transfered to the 60-day DL and Tanner Roark was called up to provide some bullpen cover while Ross Ohlendorf is on the mend.  Roark’s body of work both this season and over the past few warranted his call-up, and his mixture of success both in the starter role and in a long-relief role in AAA make him the perfect candidate to replace Ohlendorf for the time being.

A quick side note: whenever I see someone, after years and years of toiling in the minors, finally get the call-up I’m reminded of the storytelling of Dirk Hayhurst in his 2nd book Out of My League, where he described all the logistics and feelings of getting his first callup.  Of particular interest; the pay.  I’m sure Roark was compensated like a typical minor league veteran in AAA; probably making $1,500 a month or so (which was about what Hayhurst said he made).  Upon signing a MLB contract, you immediately start getting paid a pro-rated amount of a minimum MLB salary, which is $490,000 a season.  Well, you can quickly see that a guy getting called up immediately starts making significantly more money.   30-40 TIMES more money.  More money per day in the majors than he was making in a month in the minors.   So I say good for Roark and good for every guy who finally gets a shot at the bigs.

Lets take a look at Roark’s first appearance… which came last night on 8/7/13 in relief of a curiously ineffective Jordan Zimmermann, who needed 88 pitches to complete 4 innings as the Nats officially waved the white flag on the season, getting swept at home by the team they’re chasing for the division lead and falling to 15 1/2 games out of first.

Roark had a great MLB debut.  He came in to face Atlanta’s 4-5-6 hitters and pitched a 1-2-3 inning.  He got a Brian McCann to fly out on a relatively well struck ball, then badly jammed Chris Johnson to get a simple grounder to short, and then got Dan Uggla to reach for a first pitch fastball for an equally weak grounder to second.  Coming back out to face the bottom of the order he effectively jammed BJ Upton, who flared a flyball into shallow center field that Denard Span couldn’t quite come up with in a sliding catch attempt, then  he jammed Andrelton Simmons to get a simple pop-up to first.  Lastly for his coup-de-gras, he induced a popped-up bunt attempt from his opposite number Kris Medlen, made a diving catch and then doubled off Upton, who was (I guess) running on the play.

Not a bad debut, at all.

The scouting reports on Roark said that he’d work mid 90s in relief, low 90s as a starter, and that’s exactly what we saw.  Per the pitch f/x data, He threw 12 fastballs on the night which averaged 94.46, peaking at 95.52.  He only threw three sliders, bouncing the first and probably ruining his confidence in the pitch.  10 of 15 pitches were for strikes, and that ratio should have been higher; his first batter he didn’t get a borderline call on the outside corner and the ump flat out missed a low strike.  He seemed to have pretty good movement on the 4-seamer (-7.10″ average horizontal movement, which for comparison purposes almost as much as Medlen, a guy who relies almost exclusively on his movement, got on his 2-seamer last night).  He certainly worked the corners effectively, only really giving up one well hit ball (that to McCann, who benefitted from being way ahead in the count thanks to the ump’s missed strike calls).  You don’t have to throw 100mph if you can effectively work the ball inside and out.

He was almost too effective; 15 pitches to get through 2 innings meant he didn’t really work much of his repertoire.  I’m sure he has at least a third pitch, but we never got to see it.  Roark’s spot in the order was up, and he was out (as he was being pinch hit for, I wondered internally when the last time Roark got an at-bat was.  Turns out he has 18PAs for Syracuse this summer; I didn’t realize the minor league pitchers got any at-bats).

It was hard not to like what we saw from him last night.  Is he going to continue to be effective, can he stick in the majors?  Hard to tell.  Ian Krol giving up two hits and a walk in a third of an inning didn’t help his cause much, a similiarly ineffective appearance to his 7/31 outing.  Fernando Abad has basically blown the last two games in which he’s appeared.  But these two guys are blessed as being left-handers, so they possess value that a righty does not, and may not really be candidates to make way once Ohlendorf comes off the D/L.  So we’ll see.

Meanwhile Tanner, use some of that MLB meal money to go get a haircut!  🙂

PS.  One more thought on this series since i’ve got nowhere else to put it; I’m disappointed we didn’t see retaliation of some sort last night for the BS of the night before.  I’m sorry; you HAVE to protect your best player out there, and i’m not surprised to hear reports and see evidence that Bryce Harper was on edge last night with his own manager.  As J.P. Santangelo succinctly pointed out; not protecting one of your own players can and does blow up clubhouses.  I think somebody on Atlanta needed to get hit last night (likely McCann).  I’m more than a little worried right now about the state of the clubhouse, given this lack of reaction.

Do I have to write an Alex Rodriguez opinion piece?

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All A-Rod, all the time.  Photo John Munson/The Star-Ledger via nj.com

All A-Rod, all the time. Photo John Munson/The Star-Ledger via nj.com

I’ve got Alex Rodriguez over-load.

Here’s links that summarize the past week’s rumors and activities in the A-Rod case: first he was going to get banned for life, then we were down to MLB “seeking” to ban him for life, then MLB and A-Rod were negotiating a suspension, then he faced a minimum 214-game suspension, then officially it was a 211-game ban, which of course he immediately appealed.

So, what do I think of all of this?

Honestly, I’m happy A-rod is fighting this.   You know why?   Because I want to see exactly what evidence MLB has here.  MLB basically went out and BOUGHT this evidence, they went out of their way to pursue via a sketchy legal strategy the Biogenesis guys in order to get evidence with which to pursue these players.  Something about that just doesn’t sound kosher to me.  Clearly the evidence is compelling (why else would have Ryan Braun and the 12 other players just rolled over and accepted their suspensions?) .. but its all secret right now.  I hope A-Rod forces discovery and forces this evidence and all the mechanisms that went into procuring it to the light.

If he (or any of these other 12 players who just accepted suspensions) used the substances, where’s the proof?  Are there positive tests?   Why is it “bad” for A-Rod to attempt to cover things up but its “ok” for MLB to pay to “uncover” the evidence?

I mean, don’t get me wrong,  I’m certainly not excusing A-rod here, nor do I think he’s clean.  But something is just not right about the lengths to which MLB is going after the guy.  There’s a CBA in place with pre-agreed upon punishment for PED violations; 50 games for one positive test, 100 games for two.   How does MLB arrive at exactly “211” games?  Where is that number in the CBA?  Plus there’s this: so far we have ZERO positive tests for any of these guys, and they all seem to be just taking well timed suspensions so as to either a) be able to get back for the playoffs or b) not extend into 2014 if possible so their free agency market isn’t impacted.

Initially he was to be “banned for life.”  For what??  Pete Rose gambled on the outcome of games in which he was a participant.  Members of the 1919 Chicago White Sox fixed and threw games to for profit.  Those are “ban for life” types of offenses.  Steve Howe‘s “lifetime ban” only followed SEVEN different suspensions, all for known test failures, and even that “lifetime ban” was rescinded.  How is whatever A-Rod could have possibly done here on the same level as these situations?  Doesn’t this seem like MLB and Bud Selig in particular are specifically going after Alex Rodriguez?

I dunno.  Maybe its because I detest Selig and everything he and his cronies do to the sport I love.  Maybe its because I detest how Baseball operates with its little backroom deals and constant deceptions about finances and player movement.  Maybe its this ridiculous anti-trust exemption that has outlived its legal usefulness for about 50 years yet continues to protect the interests of multi-millionare team owners.

I’m entirely convinced Selig is colluding as we speak with the Yankees owners to ban A-Rod.  I’m entirely convinced Selig coordinated league wide collusion to get Barry Bonds out of the game (Bonds had a 169 OPS+ in his final season; you mean to tell me there was NO team that could have used his bat, even on a free agency flier?  B.S.)  Selig enabled a huckster in Frank McCourt to run the Dodgers into the ground and still profit by hundreds of millions of dollars.  Selig enabled Jeffrey Loria to destroy a baseball market inside of 2 years, and this after Selig gifted the Florida franchise to Loria and allowed him to pillage the Montreal franchise on the way out.   Selig continues to inexplicably force the Oakland A’s to play in an awful stadium in order to protect San Jose “territory rights” that Oakland themselves GAVE to San Francisco years ago.  And it was Selig who gave this sweetheart/ridiculously short sighted MASN TV deal to placate Peter Angelos which is now, in a completely predictable turn of events, locked in a stalemate with the two sides $100M off.  Baseball teams cry about poverty but privately make tens of millions of dollars on the backs of tax payers in publicly funded stadiums.  It is entirely slimy and reprehensible.

Slimy and reprehensible.  Just like A-Rod, in all likelihood.

Maybe I shouldn’t care at all; two sides, each slimier than the next, duking it out to preserve, what exactly?  A-Rod’s incredibly over-paid salary?  A-rod’s “place” in the history of the sport, long since destroyed along with every other hall-of-fame calibre player form the last 30 years?  The sanctity of the game, long since lost at the altar of home runs in the late 90s and early 2000s?  Or is it the zealotry of a manipulative commissioner who works at the behest of and makes decisions driven by cheapskate-but-millionare owners trying to save a buck or two while trying to save themselves from themselves?

A bit cynical, I am about this.

 

Written by Todd Boss

August 7th, 2013 at 6:50 am

July 2013: Minor League Monthly Rotation Review

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A.J. Cole is having a good 2013. Photo: AP Stock

A.J. Cole is having a rebound 2013 for sure. Photo: AP Stock

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post.  Here’s April 2013May 2013, and June 2013‘s posts for history.

For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).  I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.

All stats mentioned (ERAs, Whips, K/9 rates, etc) are as of 8/1/13 and may have slightly changed by the time of this posting.


AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

  • Maya: B+,D,D-,A-,B+,A
  • Tatusko: D,A,B,C+,B,B
  • Rosenbaum: B,C-,A,D,D
  • Roark: B+,C+,C-,A-,A
  • Clay: A,A,D+/inc (rain),B,C
  • Mandel: D->back to bullpen
  • Robertson: F

Discussion: Syracuse has had the most stable rotation of the whole system.   Which is ironic because (if I’m interpreting their service time correctly) 4/5ths of this rotation are minor league free agents this coming off season.   Only Danny Rosenbaum is tied to the organization past this year, having already “survived” one rule-5 draft, but I think we can read the tea-leaves in terms of his future with the organization.  The bright side of this turnover will be the rightful promotion and challenging of several AA pitchers right now, to start grooming the true MLB injury replacements that we just did not have in-house this year (with apologies to Chris Young who really did not work out and Ross Ohlendorf, who has but in a non-starting role thus far).

Yunesky Maya has shown signs of life lately, putting up a few good performances in the latter part of the month.  Tanner Roark seems like he could be a useful swing-man on the MLB roster if called into action; he’s performed ably since returning to the rotation.  Caleb Clay continues to impress; how did he not success in Boston’s organization?

In the bullpen, Xavier Cedeno has excelled since his waiver claim from Houston but suffered from bad timing and bad luck; the two loogies called up (Abad and Krol) have both excelled.   Cedeno is likely another 6-year MLFA heading elsewhere this coming off-season.  (Note: Cedeno has just been called up to cover for Ohlendorf’s “dead arm” D/L trip).

 


AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

  • Karns: A,A (inc),A,A,B-,B-
  • Gilliam: A-,A+,D+,B,B,C-
  • Cole: A+,A
  • Ray: B+,A++,D,D,B-
  • Hill: A,B,A-,B,B,D+
  • Herron: D
  • Swynenberg: A-
  • Grace: B
  • Demny: -> D/L, to bullpen, demoted
  • Treinen: D->d/l,C+,B+ -> D/L

Discussion: Harrisburg’s rotation is now down to just one of the 5 guys who opened the year there; Nathan Karns has recovered from his MLB stint and long layoff and is back to dominating; if it weren’t for the full-deck in AAA Karns may have been promoted by now.   Blake Treinen (another original rotation guy) is on his second D/L stint of the month but has kept his numbers respectable.  Robert Gilliam continues his up-and-down season, moving between stellar and sub-par starts (which is reflected in his 4.09 ERA in AA).

The next generation though seems upon us: A.J. ColeRobbie Ray and Taylor Hill are all on the same path this year: succeeded in High-A, pushed to AA and are now succeeding there.  Cole’s first two starts in Harrisburg could not have gone better, and Ray’s numbers are still good despite a couple of rough starts.  Remember; both Ray and Cole were “really young” at the season’s onset for High-A; now they’re among the youngest guys in all of AA and still producing.  This is great news going forward for this farm system, especially considering that another of the opening day Potomac starters (Taylor Jordan) is now effectively pitching in the majors.  I know this is the Harrisburg section, but think about the success of Potomac’s original 5 this year.

 


High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

  • Purke: A-,F-,C-,D-,D,B+
  • Demny: D,D/inc (2 innings)
  • Solis: A-,D,A-
  • Schwartz: A,D,C-,B+,C+,B+
  • Rauh C,A,D,B+,A,D/inc (2/3 inning)
  • Fischer: A,B
  • Holt: A
  • Ray: -> promoted
  • Pineyro: A -> traded
  • Cole: D,B+/inc,A- -> promoted
  • Frias: B,F -> bullpen -> released 7/24/13

Discussion: The churn in the Potomac rotation continues.   They’ve not gotten starts from 15 different non-rehab assignment players.   And they keep on chugging, holding an 8 game lead in the division on August 1st after winning the first half.  Potomac’s two significant/important names of course are Matthew Purke and Sammy Solis.   Purke has looked hittable in High-A, his ERA skewed by one really bad outing but still not as dominant as you’d like someone with his pedigree to be.  Meanwhile Solis’ latest “return” seems to be going pretty well; he maintains a 2.65 ERA in Potomac while trying to build up arm strength.   Blake Schwartz is now the longest tenured rotation member and has pitched excellently so far in 2013.  He could be quite a find if he continues to develop (he was a 17th round pick who mostly pitched in Division II in college).

Meanwhile, Paul Demny‘s career faced a significant setback upon his demotion from Harrisburg.  He now sits back in High-A, a level at which he pitched a full season in 2011.  It may be time for Demny to try a conversion to relief, as it seems that he may be stalled as a starter.  He had great K/9 rates as a starter; it seems he may make a very effective reliever.


Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

  • Turnbull: F,D,A,C-,A,D
  • Encarnation: A+,C,A,D,A-,B+
  • Mooneyham: B+,B-,D,B,A+
  • Dickson: A,F,C+,B+
  • Lee: A,B+,C-,B+,A-,B+
  • RPena: B,B+
  • Harper: | | | B,B+
  • Meza: B
  • Purke: -> promoted
  • Anderson: -> d/l

Discussion: with Dixon Anderson‘s D/L trip, Pedro Encarnacion now becomes the senior statesman of Hagerstown.   Both guys have pretty similar numbers; good ERAs (3.20-3.30) and good whips (1.17-1.19).   Encarnaction continues his slow march up the farm system, having gotten further along than most every DSL graduate in recent  years.   Brett Mooneyham continues to dominate a league that he’s over-qualified for.    Kylin Turnbull continues to get pounded in a league that he should be handling.  Ian Dickson (who we got in trade for Henry Rodriguez) has done decently well since being added to the rotation; outside of one blow-up he’s given up just 4 runs in 20 innings over 5 starts.  Not a bad return so far for a guy we were going to cut anyway (and who the Cubs took about 5 weeks to DFA themselves).


Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

  • Johansen: A,A,B+,B+,A
  • Barrientos: D,C+,C- -> D/L,F
  • Orlan: F-,B-,A,A,F
  • DWilliams: B-,F,D,C-
  • Voth: A,C+,B/inc (1ip),A-
  • Ullmann: | | | F,B+
  • Hollins: B,B+
  • Bafidis: D+
  • Medina: A-
  • Selsor: B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen
  • Hudgins: D+,A- -> retired !?
  • Turnbull: C -> promoted

We’re seeing some big ERAs in Auburn so far.  Robert Orlan; 5.19 ERA.  Joel Barrientos: 4.66.  Deion Williams: 9.42.  Ugh.  More interesting to me are the 2013 draftee performances thus far.  2nd rounder Jake Johansen has been good; sub 1.00 ERA, sub 1.00 whip and about a K an inning so far.  He’s been a bit wild (28/14 K/BB ratio but has been consistently stingy when it comes to runs.  5th rounder Austin Voth has been sharp; 17/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings so far in Short-A.  Lastly Ryan Ullman, a 30th round pick has had up and down starts so far in his 13 short-A innings.

I remain baffled with Will Hudgins abrupt retirement; he had 12 innings of relatively decent relief in 2013 and then tweeted out his retirement.   He hasn’t tweeted since, and when I mentioned it in the daily NationalsProspect.com post I didn’t get anyone who knew anything else.  Hopefully the retirement was not injury or illness related.


GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

  • JRodriguez: F,A,A,B,B+
  • Silvestre: C-,A,F,A
  • Giolito: D/inc (only 1/3 inning),B,A-,D/inc (2/3 inings),D
  • Suero: B,B+,A
  • Valdez: A
  • Ott: B,B,C
  • DeRosier: B,B-
  • KRodriguez: B,B+,B+,C+
  • Pivetta: B-,B+,A
  • Spezial: A
  • Webb: A
  • Voth: A -> promoted
  • Ullmann: A,D+ -> promoted

It almost isn’t worth trying to grade out these GCL pitchers; most of the time they’re going 2-3 innings per “start” or per long relief stint.  If you pitch 3 scoreless innings, is that an “A?”   Lucas Giolito now has 6 “starts” but only a total of 12 combined innings thrown.   DSL grads Wander Suero and Jefry Rodriguez have looked promising.  Kelvin Rodriguez has good numbers in his combined mid-relief stints but relatively few strike outs (only 9 in 21 1/3 innings).

 

 

One lesson learned from 2013: you can never have enough starting pitching

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If Detwiler is out for the year, the Nats have a problem. Photo: Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

If Detwiler is out for the year, the Nats have a problem. Photo: Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

We all knew the Nationals had a glaring, acknowledged weakness heading into the 2013 season; almost no quality starting pitching depth in the high minors.  We non-tendered former opening day starter John Lannan in lieu of paying him somewhere between $5M-$6M dollars to toil in Syracuse again.  We non-tendered former starter Tom Gorzelanny despite his excellent 2012 season for us instead of paying him a few millions dollars a year to continue to be the 7th guy out of the pen.  We traded away top starting pitching prospect Alex Meyer to acquire a center-fielder that (in my oft-stated opinion) we didn’t need.  We were blinded by the excellent but short-sample-sized performance of Zach Duke upon his call-up last September and chose to make him not only the sole lefty in our 2013 pen, but the long-man/spot starter as well.

And we talked ourselves into it.

In 2012 our primary rotation made 150 of 162 starts.  Those 12 missed starts were made by Chien-Ming Wang (five starts) in a quickly-aborted glimpse to see if the many millions of dollars invested in his recovery over the past few years were going to pay off (they did not), by Lannan (six) for a couple of mid-season spot starts and his Stephen Strasburg replacement plan in September, and one by Gorzelanny the day after the team clinched the division (editor note: mistakely originally put “pennant.”  Duh).  That’s it; otherwise the rotation was solid, consistent, and one of the best in the majors by any statistical measure.

Was it just hubris that led us to believe that the same thing would happen in 2013?  That our vaunted rotation (which I certainly thought was the best in the majors before the season started) would steamroll through another 150+ starts in 2013 as we marched to the inevitable World Series title?  Maybe so.

The latest blow is the news that Ross Detwiler‘s herniated disk may very well keep him out for the rest of 2013.  Taylor Jordan has been more than ably filling in for Detwiler … but in a familiar twist Jordan is facing an innings restriction limit.  After August 4th’s start he’s got 40 2/3 major league innings in 2013 to go with 90 1/3 in the minors for 131 total on the year.  He only threw 54 1/3 all of 2012 coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this year easily marks a professional career high (he’s never thrown more than 100 professional innings).  He’s going to get shut down, soon (in about four more starts per the Washington Times’ Amanda Comak, which would put him just about at the same 160ip limit that both Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann pitched to the year after their own TJ surgeries).  This leaves the team right back where they were on May 20th, when the whole “find a competent 5th starter” charade started.

Duke failed and was released.  Yunesky Maya got his last attempt at pitching in the majors and was outrighted (a move long overdue in the opinion of many Nats followers).  Nathan Karns got three bites at the apple and returned to AA with a 7.50 ERA.  Ross Ohlendorf gave us a fantastic spot start in a double header last week… and just went on the D/L after not being able to dial it up more than 85mph in his last appearance.  The only other 40-man starter in the whole of the minors is Matthew Purke, currently posting a 6.35 ERA in high-A.

Hey, at least Dan Haren suddenly resembles the 2009 version of himself, having tossed 14 innings oof one-run ball en route to winning his last two starts.  A month ago we were talking about releasing him.

So, what should the team do when Jordan is shutdown?  It sounds to me like in the short term we’ll go back to Ohlendorf as the 5th starter (assuming of course his recent “dead arm” injury doesn’t turn into much more than a quick D/L trip).   However, despite Ohlendorf’s excellent work for us thus far, lets not forget why he was available on a minor league deal in the first place; his ERAs in 2011 and 2012 were 8.15 and 7.77 respectively.  Odds are that he’s not likely to be that effective going forward.

Plus, Ohlendorf’s time in the rotation means the bullpen will need another guy … presumably one that can pitch long relief to replace Ohlendorf.  I’m not entirely sure any of the other relievers on the 40-man but in the minors (Drew StorenErik Davis or Tyler Robertson) fits the bill.  Craig Stammen has absolutely done that role in the past, but I think Stammen’s value to this team now lies in his 7th inning “bridge reliever” role, getting the team from a short start to the 8th/9th inning guys.

If Detwiler is indeed out for the year I think he should be immediately transferred to the 60-day D/L (opening up a spot on the 40-man roster) and I’d like to see Tanner Roark  get a look-see as the long man in the bullpen.  He’s put up very good numbers in AAA this season in a swing-man role and faces minor league free agency this off-season.  Or, I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping Ohlendorf in the pen and giving Danny Rosenbaum a shot at the 5th starter.  He’s been the most effective AAA starter all year and, despite not being that overpowering, could turn into another Tommy Milone-esque lefty starter that we could leverage in trade.  We may not have fantastic depth in the upper minors, but you never know who may suddenly be an effective MLB pitcher (see Krol, Ian).

(Editor’s note: after I wrote this mid-weekend MASN’s Byron Kerr wrote and posted almost identical analysis).

Atlanta’s pending starting pitching concerns

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Is Medlen quickly approaching an innings limit?  Photo unknown via totalprosports.com

Is Kris Medlen quickly approaching an innings limit? Photo unknown via totalprosports.com

When Atlanta lost bulldog staff Ace Tim Hudson to a gruesome ankle injury last week, the Braves were able to immediately plug in the promising Alex Wood to the rotation and not really miss a beat, at least in the short term.  But an interesting point mentioned by Buster Olney in his daily ESPN Baseball Tonight podcast highlighted a dilemna that the Braves may face later this season.

Specifically; they’re depending on a lot of young arms right now who are projected to blow past 2012 and/or career innings totals, and the team may be facing a critical decision when it comes to managing innings and workload as this season progresses.  This is very much of a Tom Verducci-effect concern, which admittedly some people do not subscribe to, but some of these potential workload increases are so substantial that they cannot be ignored.

Here’s a table showing the number of innings their current set of younger starters have thrown this year (in all levels) as compared to last year (innings as of 8/1/13).  The season right now is basicaly 2/3’s over (108 of 162 games played), so I’ve used a simple 33% addition to current workloads:

Starter Age 2013 Innings to date 2013 projected 2012 ttl innings Projected delta Projected delta % increase
Mike Minor 25 144 191.52 179.33 12.19 6.36%
Julio Teheran 22 126 167.58 137.33 30.25 18.05%
Kris Medlen 27 125 166.25 151.33 14.92 8.97%
Alex Wood 22 95.33 126.7889 154.33 -27.53 -21.70%

However, this may be too simplistic a projection.  Each of their starters has about 10 starts left.  Lets assume each of them goes an average of 6 innings in each of these starts.  Now the 2013 projected totals rise a bit;

Starter Age 2013 Innings to date 2013 projected factoring 6ip/start for 10 starts 2012 ttl innings New projected delta New projected delta %
Mike Minor 25 144 204 179.33 24.67 13.76%
Julio Teheran 22 126 186 137.33 48.67 35.44%
Kris Medlen 27 125 185 151.33 33.67 22.25%
Alex Wood 22 95.33 155.33 154.33 1.03 0.67%

Mike Minor has never had any injury concerns and only really faces a small increase in the number of innings he will throw, but if he gets much above 200 innings there may be some concerns.   If he hits 204 innings, that’s a 13% workload increase over last year.

Likewise with Kris Medlen; if he makes 10 more starts and averages 6 innings a start, he’s looking at more than a 20% workload increase over last year.  Medlen is technically still coming back from Tommy John surgery done on 8/18/2010, though it isn’t as much of a concern this year as it was last (when they worked him out of the bullpen before installing him in the rotation later in the year).  A potential 20% innings increase year to year has got to be concerning for a guy with a TJ surgery in his background.

Meanwhile, Julio Teheran doesn’t have any injury history to fend with … but he’s looking at a pretty significant jump over his 2012 inning totals.  His career high was in 2011 with about 160 between the minors and majors.   But if he continues in the rotation he’ll start to get up there towards the 180 innings range, a pretty significant jump over last year.

Lastly there’s Wood, their 2nd round pick in 2012’s draft.  He has rocketed up the farm system, dominating the Sally league in his draft year, skipping high-A, then dominating AA before getting the call-up.  When you add in his college workload to his 2012 minor league numbers, he may be right in line to pitch the same number of innings as lastyear.  There’s just the small concern of a guy who this time last year was making his professional debut in low-A continuing to be effective for a major league team in a pennant race.

This analysis doesn’t include any innings analysis for Hudson (out for the year), Paul Maholm (currently on the D/L) or Brandon Beachy (just coming back from injury and without innings limitations this late in the season) since they’re either unavailable or don’t have any inning limit concerns.  Beachy had his Tommy John surgery on 6/21/13 and, while he should be healthy, still may not be 100% (to this point, his first start back was a debacle, giving up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings).   Maholm is on the D/L now but should be off within a couple weeks (he has a “Wrist Contusion”), but he’s also their least effective starter on the year.  And of course Hudson is out until at least next spring with his broken ankle at best; his career in jeopardy at worst.

What should they do?

As you can imagine, their problem may be exacerbated because somebody has to throw post-season games (I think its safe to assume the Braves are making the post-season at this point).

This is why some questioned the Braves lack of pursuing a starter in the trade market to replace Hudson and keep Wood in the minors.  Of course, the Braves probably didn’t want to do this knowing they had Beachy coming off the D/L and Maholm returning soon too (probably pushing Wood back to AAA).   But if Teheran runs out of innings, the Braves are looking at a post-season rotation that isn’t exactly a world-beater (Minor-Maholm-Beachy and Medlen?).  Then again, that hasn’t stopped them while building a double-digit lead in the NL East.

It should be interesting to see if the Braves end up with a Stephen Strasburg shutdown-gate of their own as we head into September.

July 2013 Monthly Review of Nats Rotation by Opponent

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Zimmermann really struggled in July. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta/AP

Zimmermann really struggled in July. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta/AP

[Editor’s note: duh, I published this with the wrong title; just fixed 8/2/13]

Continuing a monthly series of look-backs at our starters (here’s Apr 2013May 2013June 2013, July2013 posts), here’s a monthly glance at how our rotation is doing from a Starting Pitching standpoint. As with previous posts, we’ll have “Grades” per outing, the team’s performance per opposing starter sliced and diced a few ways, and other per-starter stuff that I like to track.

MLB Rotation Per-Start Grades (click here for Nats overall season stats)

  • Strasburg: A,C,F,B,A+,D
  • Gonzalez: C+,A,A+,B,F-
  • Zimmermann: C-,C,B,F-,D
  • Haren: C-,A+,D,A
  • Jordan: B-,C-,B,C+,A
  • Ohlendorf: B long relief,A spot start
  • Detwiler: B- -> D/L

Quick Summary:  A month where we had a handful of really shocking blow-up starts.  Gonzalez‘s 11 run debacle  yesterday, Strasburg‘s 2 inning/7 run meltdown being the most shocking examples.  Only rookie Taylor Jordan kept an even keel, never pitching that badly and only really pitching excellently in his last start (also, not coincidentally his first win).  I will say it is good to see Dan Haren putting in some good-to-great starts; that may really help.  Ross Ohlendorf‘s injury yesterday better not be serious; Jordan’s innings limit is fast, fast approaching.

Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher Rotation Order Number

A look at the opposing team’s rotation ranked 1-5 in the order they’re appearing from opening day.  This table changes at the all-star break and honestly must be taken with a grain of salt, since guys like Clayton Kershaw are now the “#3 starter” because their turns were skipped coming out of the all-star game.

Starter # Record Opposing Starter in Wins Opposing Starter in Losses
1 2-3 Gallardo, Burnett Hamels, Nolaso, Sanchez
2 2-3 Lee, Slowey Peralta, Greinke, Verlander
3 1-4 Harvey Lohse, Kendrick, Kershaw, Liriano
4 2-1 Marquis, Gee Cole
5 2-3 Hand, Torres Lannan, Fernandez, Morton
5+ 2-2 Cashner, Erlin Eovaldi, Mejia

Quick thoughts: given the aforementioned caveat of having Justin Verlander listed as a #2 and Kershaw listed as a #3, the team more or less performed as you’d expect.  A 1-4 record against opposing teams’ #3 starters is really skewed by the likes of Harvey, Lohse, Kershaw and Liriano in that grouping, all four guys being their team’s current aces.  This table is becoming less and less meaningful as rotations get scattered as the season goes along.

Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher Actual Performance Rank Intra-Rotation

A ranking of opposing teams’ rotations by pure performance at the time of the series, using ERA+ heavily.

Starter # Record Opposing Starter in Wins Opposing Starter in Losses
1 3-4 Lee, Harvey, Cashner Sanchez, Lohse, Kershaw, Fernandez
2 1-2 Hand Kendrik, Liriano
3 4-2 Gallardo, Burnett, Marquis, Gee Greinke, Eovaldi
4 1-4 Erlin Nolasco, Peralta, Verlander, Morton
5 2-2 Slowey, Torrez Hamels, Cole
5+ 0-2 Lannan, Mejia

Quick Thoughts: the Nats actually held their own very well against other teams’ best performing guys.  They hung losses on Matt Harvey somehow, and hung a loss on Cliff Lee.  Less impressive was the collapse against AAA-callup Jenrry Mejia or the no-show against former teammmate John Lannan.

Performance By Opponent Starting Pitcher League-wide “Rank”
A team-independent assignment of a league-wide “rank” of what the starter is. Is he an “Ace?” Is he a #2?

Starter # Record Opposing Starter in Wins Opposing Starter in Losses
1 2-4 Harvey, Lee Kershaw, Grienke, Verlander, Hamels
2 0-3 Sanchez, Liriano, Fernandez
3 2-3 Gallardo, Burnett Lohse, Nolasco, Cole
4 0-1 Kendrick
5 6-4 Cashner, Hand, Marquis, Gee, Erlin, Slowey Eovaldi, Peralta, Morton, Lannan
5+ 1-1 Torres Mejia

Quick thoughts: despite a supposedly “weak” schedule the team faced a lot of big-time names in July.  Six of the 27 games went against league-wide Aces, a tall order for any team.  They also got whitewashed by the near-Aces/#2 starters, losing all three games against these types.  More disappointing?  Only a 6-4 record against league-wide #5 pitchers, the kind of guys that are nearly interchangeable with AAA players.  Maybe John Lannan isn’t really a #5 starter (probably not; he’s probably more of a #4), but the rest of these guys?

Records by Pitching Advantage

Start-by-start advantages in my own opinion and then looking at the results.

Wash 4-6 Zim-Gallardo, Gio-Cashner, Zim-Marquis, Stras-Erlin Det-Lohse, Stras-Nolasco, Zim-Kendrick, Stras-Eovaldi, Stras-Peralta, Zim-Mejia
Even 3-3 Gio-Burnett, Jordan-Hand, Jordan-Torres Gio-Verlander, Stras-Sanchez, Stras-Liriano
Opp 4-8 Jordan-Slowey, Ohlendorf-Harvey, Haren-Gee, Gio-Lee Zimm-Kershaw, Gio-Greinke, Haren-Fernandez, Jordan-Hamels, Haren-Lannan, Jordan-Cole, Haren-Morton

A sign of how our season has gone:  I gave opponents the clear advantage in 12 of our 27 games this month.    Compare this to April, when I only gave our opponents the advantage in TWO of our first 27 games.  We’re to the point where Haren and Jordan are automatically underdogs nearly every time they take the mound, and we face enough power arms where our big three may not always be favored to win either.

Matchup analysis

Looking at the opposing starter rank that our guys are going up against to see how their competition fares.

Nats Starters Opponents matchup analysis Nats Record under starter
Strasburg Two #2s, a #3 and three #5s 1-5
Gonzalez Three Aces, a #3 and a #5 3-2
Zimmermann An Ace, a #3, a #4 and two #5s 2-3
Haren one #2, three #5s 1-3
Detwiler one #3 0-1
Jordan An Ace, a #3 and three #5s 3-2
Ohlendorf An Ace in Harvey 1-0

Instead of classifying by rotation order in this table, this is by “league wide rank.”  And we see some very interesting information.

  • The team was only 1-5 in Strasburg’s 6 starts this month, and he wasn’t exactly going against an all-star collection of opposing starters.  That’s a big-time area of concern.  It all comes down to run support.
  • Gio meanwhile had to face up with three of the best 20 pitchers in the league and still managed to have a winning record during his starts.
  • Zimmermann, as we see in his grades, tailed off badly this month.
  • Haren, despite facing off mostly against other #5 quality guys, still conspired to lose 3 of his four starts.
  • Jordan, as we all know, has really surprised everyone and has been helping the team win.
  • Ohlendorf faced off against one of (if not the) major’s best hurlers and the team got a win in his spot start.