Nationals Arm Race

A.J. Cole is having a rebound 2013 for sure. Photo: AP Stock

Here’s this month’s Minor League Rotation Review post.  Here’s April 2013, May 2013, and June 2013‘s posts for history.

For each level, I’ll put out the rotation members, their “letter grades” per start for this month only, and then throw in a quick link to show their seasonal stats for context.  For each team there are 3 distinct groups of starters: the top group of 5-6 Starters per level is the “current rotation” as best as I can figure it, then the next section of pitchers are swing-men or spot-starters or guys who had “2nd start” or longer outings worthy of grading, followed by a 3rd group of guys who are generally no longer with the team (either by D/L, promotion, demotion or release).  I’ve only listed the third category if something transactionally has happened to the player this particular month.

All stats mentioned (ERAs, Whips, K/9 rates, etc) are as of 8/1/13 and may have slightly changed by the time of this posting.

AAA Rotation: click here for Syracuse Milb.com stats

• Maya: B+,D,D-,A-,B+,A
• Tatusko: D,A,B,C+,B,B
• Rosenbaum: B,C-,A,D,D
• Roark: B+,C+,C-,A-,A
• Clay: A,A,D+/inc (rain),B,C

• Mandel: D->back to bullpen
• Robertson: F

Discussion: Syracuse has had the most stable rotation of the whole system.   Which is ironic because (if I’m interpreting their service time correctly) 4/5ths of this rotation are minor league free agents this coming off season.   Only Danny Rosenbaum is tied to the organization past this year, having already “survived” one rule-5 draft, but I think we can read the tea-leaves in terms of his future with the organization.  The bright side of this turnover will be the rightful promotion and challenging of several AA pitchers right now, to start grooming the true MLB injury replacements that we just did not have in-house this year (with apologies to Chris Young who really did not work out and Ross Ohlendorf, who has but in a non-starting role thus far).

Yunesky Maya has shown signs of life lately, putting up a few good performances in the latter part of the month.  Tanner Roark seems like he could be a useful swing-man on the MLB roster if called into action; he’s performed ably since returning to the rotation.  Caleb Clay continues to impress; how did he not success in Boston’s organization?

In the bullpen, Xavier Cedeno has excelled since his waiver claim from Houston but suffered from bad timing and bad luck; the two loogies called up (Abad and Krol) have both excelled.   Cedeno is likely another 6-year MLFA heading elsewhere this coming off-season.  (Note: Cedeno has just been called up to cover for Ohlendorf’s “dead arm” D/L trip).

AA: click here for Harrisburg Milb.com stats

• Karns: A,A (inc),A,A,B-,B-
• Gilliam: A-,A+,D+,B,B,C-
• Cole: A+,A
• Ray: B+,A++,D,D,B-
• Hill: A,B,A-,B,B,D+

• Herron: D
• Swynenberg: A-
• Grace: B

• Demny: -> D/L, to bullpen, demoted
• Treinen: D->d/l,C+,B+ -> D/L

Discussion: Harrisburg’s rotation is now down to just one of the 5 guys who opened the year there; Nathan Karns has recovered from his MLB stint and long layoff and is back to dominating; if it weren’t for the full-deck in AAA Karns may have been promoted by now.   Blake Treinen (another original rotation guy) is on his second D/L stint of the month but has kept his numbers respectable.  Robert Gilliam continues his up-and-down season, moving between stellar and sub-par starts (which is reflected in his 4.09 ERA in AA).

The next generation though seems upon us: A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray and Taylor Hill are all on the same path this year: succeeded in High-A, pushed to AA and are now succeeding there.  Cole’s first two starts in Harrisburg could not have gone better, and Ray’s numbers are still good despite a couple of rough starts.  Remember; both Ray and Cole were “really young” at the season’s onset for High-A; now they’re among the youngest guys in all of AA and still producing.  This is great news going forward for this farm system, especially considering that another of the opening day Potomac starters (Taylor Jordan) is now effectively pitching in the majors.  I know this is the Harrisburg section, but think about the success of Potomac’s original 5 this year.

High-A:  click here for Potomac Milb.com stats

• Purke: A-,F-,C-,D-,D,B+
• Demny: D,D/inc (2 innings)
• Solis: A-,D,A-
• Schwartz: A,D,C-,B+,C+,B+
• Rauh C,A,D,B+,A,D/inc (2/3 inning)

• Fischer: A,B
• Holt: A

• Ray: -> promoted
• Pineyro: A -> traded
• Cole: D,B+/inc,A- -> promoted
• Frias: B,F -> bullpen -> released 7/24/13

Discussion: The churn in the Potomac rotation continues.   They’ve not gotten starts from 15 different non-rehab assignment players.   And they keep on chugging, holding an 8 game lead in the division on August 1st after winning the first half.  Potomac’s two significant/important names of course are Matthew Purke and Sammy Solis.   Purke has looked hittable in High-A, his ERA skewed by one really bad outing but still not as dominant as you’d like someone with his pedigree to be.  Meanwhile Solis’ latest “return” seems to be going pretty well; he maintains a 2.65 ERA in Potomac while trying to build up arm strength.   Blake Schwartz is now the longest tenured rotation member and has pitched excellently so far in 2013.  He could be quite a find if he continues to develop (he was a 17th round pick who mostly pitched in Division II in college).

Meanwhile, Paul Demny‘s career faced a significant setback upon his demotion from Harrisburg.  He now sits back in High-A, a level at which he pitched a full season in 2011.  It may be time for Demny to try a conversion to relief, as it seems that he may be stalled as a starter.  He had great K/9 rates as a starter; it seems he may make a very effective reliever.

Low-A: click here for Hagerstown Milb.com stats

• Turnbull: F,D,A,C-,A,D
• Encarnation: A+,C,A,D,A-,B+
• Mooneyham: B+,B-,D,B,A+
• Dickson: A,F,C+,B+
• Lee: A,B+,C-,B+,A-,B+

• RPena: B,B+
• Harper: | | | B,B+
• Meza: B

• Purke: -> promoted
• Anderson: -> d/l

Discussion: with Dixon Anderson‘s D/L trip, Pedro Encarnacion now becomes the senior statesman of Hagerstown.   Both guys have pretty similar numbers; good ERAs (3.20-3.30) and good whips (1.17-1.19).   Encarnaction continues his slow march up the farm system, having gotten further along than most every DSL graduate in recent  years.   Brett Mooneyham continues to dominate a league that he’s over-qualified for.    Kylin Turnbull continues to get pounded in a league that he should be handling.  Ian Dickson (who we got in trade for Henry Rodriguez) has done decently well since being added to the rotation; outside of one blow-up he’s given up just 4 runs in 20 innings over 5 starts.  Not a bad return so far for a guy we were going to cut anyway (and who the Cubs took about 5 weeks to DFA themselves).

Short-A: click here for Auburn Milb.com stats

• Johansen: A,A,B+,B+,A
• Barrientos: D,C+,C- -> D/L,F
• Orlan: F-,B-,A,A,F
• DWilliams: B-,F,D,C-
• Voth: A,C+,B/inc (1ip),A-
• Ullmann: | | | F,B+

• Hollins: B,B+
• Bafidis: D+
• Medina: A-
• Selsor: B,D,D -> demoted to bullpen

• Hudgins: D+,A- -> retired !?
• Turnbull: C -> promoted

We’re seeing some big ERAs in Auburn so far.  Robert Orlan; 5.19 ERA.  Joel Barrientos: 4.66.  Deion Williams: 9.42.  Ugh.  More interesting to me are the 2013 draftee performances thus far.  2nd rounder Jake Johansen has been good; sub 1.00 ERA, sub 1.00 whip and about a K an inning so far.  He’s been a bit wild (28/14 K/BB ratio but has been consistently stingy when it comes to runs.  5th rounder Austin Voth has been sharp; 17/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings so far in Short-A.  Lastly Ryan Ullman, a 30th round pick has had up and down starts so far in his 13 short-A innings.

I remain baffled with Will Hudgins abrupt retirement; he had 12 innings of relatively decent relief in 2013 and then tweeted out his retirement.   He hasn’t tweeted since, and when I mentioned it in the daily NationalsProspect.com post I didn’t get anyone who knew anything else.  Hopefully the retirement was not injury or illness related.

GCL: click here for GCL-Nationals Stats on MiLB.com

• JRodriguez: F,A,A,B,B+
• Silvestre: C-,A,F,A
• Giolito: D/inc (only 1/3 inning),B,A-,D/inc (2/3 inings),D
• Suero: B,B+,A
• Valdez: A

• Ott: B,B,C
• DeRosier: B,B-
• KRodriguez: B,B+,B+,C+
• Pivetta: B-,B+,A
• Spezial: A
• Webb: A

• Voth: A -> promoted
• Ullmann: A,D+ -> promoted

It almost isn’t worth trying to grade out these GCL pitchers; most of the time they’re going 2-3 innings per “start” or per long relief stint.  If you pitch 3 scoreless innings, is that an “A?”   Lucas Giolito now has 6 “starts” but only a total of 12 combined innings thrown.   DSL grads Wander Suero and Jefry Rodriguez have looked promising.  Kelvin Rodriguez has good numbers in his combined mid-relief stints but relatively few strike outs (only 9 in 21 1/3 innings).

Your Nats are on a little roll; they swept the Padres and have clawed their way to a mighty 4 games above .500 before looking downright weak so far in Philly. What’s the temperature of Tom Boswell‘s chat this week?  Lets find out?

As always, I write the answer here before reading Boswell’s, and edit questions for clarity/conciseness.

Q: Is this the turnaround we’ve all been waiting for?

A: Well, at the risk of being a complete hypocrite (as a couple of my friends accuse me of doing, after basically writing off the team when they were still mired at .500 at the end of June), I’ll stick with “we’re not out of the woods yet.”   After winning 4 straight and sweeping the hapless Padres in Washington, we travel to Philadelphia for a mid-week 4-game set where I only give the Nats the clear starting pitcher advantage in one of the four games.

And sure enough, Dan Haren gave up 2 early runs to set the tone and the Nats were efficiently shut down by former Ace John Lannan in dropping the first game 3-2 while getting just one run in 8 innings against Cole Hamels in last night’s loss.  It would not surprise me in the least to see the Nats lose 3 of 4 in Philly (the mano-y-mano Cliff Lee-Gio Gonzalez showdown tonight favors the Phillies, then the Jordan Zimmerman–Kyle Kendrick matchup that favors Washington on paper .. but Zimmermann has been leaking runs lately and only has 4 quality starts in his last 8 outings).  Boswell says that “baseball hates a straight line,” I suppose implying that the Nats can get a winning streak together and get back in.

Q: Why are the Nats ownership pushing out Johnson?

A: Asked and Answered in a previous chat.  See the Davey Johnson question from the 7/1/13 version of this post.  Boswell indeed repeats his 7/1 answer today.

Q: Who gets demoted to make way for Scott Hairston?

A: The obvious and easy answer is (and was) Tyler Moore, the only real expendable hitter left on the active roster.  Expendible meaning he wasn’t a vet, wasn’t out of options, and isn’t hitting .300 playing every day.  (This move has already happened by the publication of this post, so it isn’t very timely).  Boswell points out that not only is Moore going to AAA, but there’s literally no room for him NEXT year since Scott Hairston is signed through 2014.  Oops.  Moore is now officially trade bait.

Q: Why do Baseball fields continue to be irregularly shaped?

A: Anachronism.  Its the only thing I can think of.   Boswell sort of agrees.

Q: Why havn’t we pulled the plug on Dan Haren?

A: I’ll give you $13M reasons why.  But, we’re getting close.  If the Nats are really going after Matt Garza then Haren’s days are numbered.  Thank baseball for guaranteed contracts, eh?   Boswell proposes a crazy trade proposal: Detwiler, Espinosa, Moore and Giolito for David Price, who he constantly mentions as being a guy he’d love to see acquired.  I don’t see it; Tampa Bay is notoriously difficult to deal with on the trade market and this trade offer basically collects three under-performing MLBers and an injured rookie for one of the 15 best arms in the game.  As David Schoenfield put it in his ESPN chat yesterday, this is a ridiculous trade offer from a homer-fan in Boswell.  

For what its worth, later on in the chat someone also pokes disbelief at this trade proposal.  Boswell defends the trade more on the years-of-control and by comparing Price to the Gio Gonzalez deal.

Q: Why did the Nats acquire Hairston in the first place?

A: Clearly, they felt like they needed better bench hitters.  And, they got him.  Boswell notes his great lefty splits.

Q: Will the Nats re-align their rotation post All-Star Break?

A: Probably; they did minor tweaks last year.  Unless it results in some ridiculous layoff, you’d have to think they’re going back to the opening day 1-2-3-4-5.  Boswell says nobody knows.

Q: According to high placed sources, Cliff Lee has informed the Phillies he’ll waive his no trade clause for the Nationals. Will the price be to high?

A: Ugh.  Just go look at Cliff Lee‘s contract.  He’s owed more than $75M AFTER this season (I’m counting the 2016 option that seems very likely to vest).  He turns 35 in August.  That’s an awful lot of money to be going to a 38 year old guy.  And it’d take a massive haul of our thinned farm system to get him, since the Phillies would be full bore into rebuilding mode if they moved Lee.  Just don’t see it.   Yes Lee has been great this year, but the fall-off for guys in their mid 30s can be steep.  Boswell points out similar facts.

Q: MLB seems to be making a special effort to promote Puig for the final spot, three tweets about him yesterday; none about the other four NL candidates. If they want him that badly why not institute a next-to-last spot for whoever they want to pick for marketing purposes?

A: Others have proposed reserving an all-star spot for an “Up and coming” player who isn’t on the ballot and thus has little chance of making it.  That makes sense to me.  MLB is doing their best to capture the Yasiel Puig-mania, and good for them to finally do some aggressive marketing of their marketable stars.  Boswell says Puig is awesome and then goes off on a tangent.

Q: Is Rafael Soriano turning into Don “fullpack” Stanhouse for Davey Johnson?

A: Rafael Soriano‘s numbers are fine; 2.19 ERA, converted 21 of 24 save opportunities.  He gives up a hit an inning; not ideal for a closer but not out of the realm of crazy.    I don’t get THAT nervous when he comes into games.   Boswell says Soriano is underrated.

Q: Alex Rodriguez is playing single A ball. Are the Yankees sending him a message?

A: Did the Nats “send a message” to Bryce Harper by sending him to Potomac (A-Ball) to rehab?   MLBers have to play re-hab ball somewhere;  dumb question inspired by the media sensationalism that perpetually surrounds Alex Rodriguez.  Boswell pokes fun at the Yankees, Brian Cashman‘s STFU tweet and the whole situation with A-Rod in general.

Q: Do the Nationals over-play music and promotions at games?

A: The question comes from someone who clearly comes across as a whiny “I liked it in the old days when we just had an organ at baseball games” type.  I’ve never gotten that impression at Nats games.  If you want to *really* see what a fan experience is like with near perpetual distractions and music, just head on over to the Verizon Center and take in a Wizards games.  They play 95 decibel music DURING PLAY.  Its just crazy.  Boswell says that while the PA is too loud, the Nats park is relatively devoid of ads and clutter.  

Q: Trade proposal: Clippard and Storen for Cliff Lee

A: Two non-closers for a MLB Ace.  And one (Drew Storen) who is really struggling this year.  Yea right.   If you’re going to propose trades, make them at least believable.   boswell falls back on intra-division, CYA blocking reasons for not considering this trade.

Q: Should we prevent Harper from participating in the Home-Run Derby due to injury concerns?

A: Should we block Harper from taking batting practice due to injury concerns?  Another ridiculous question.  The Home Run Derby is just BP with the cameras on.   Boswell says its more likely to mess up h is stroke; whatever.  Everything I’ve read about Harper’s BP sessions show that he’s basically trying to hit it to the beer stands on every pitch.

Q: Does Storen need a change of scenery?

A: Great question; the full text of the question answers things pretty well; Storen has gone from closer to 7th inning Ryan Mattheus replacement in less than a half a season.  If traded and given another shot, you have to think he’d re-flourish as a closer.  Mike Rizzo has traded closer-quality guys to teams that covet them (see the Matt Capps deal) so maybe this could be in the cards.  I’d always trade in a closer for a position player, since you can “make” closers so easily.  Look at what Ian Krol is doing; all he’s done since arriving as an unheralded AA-reliever is just shut people down; I’ll bet he would make an excellent closer.    Boswell says the team wants Storen around for the long haul.

Q: Trade idea: Danny Espinosa for Ervin Santana?

A: Hmm.  #2 starter with a 2.93 ERA for a team trying to make the playoffs for …. an AAA infielder who hit .158 this year.  AND the questioner thinks the Royals would throw in a prospect to make it work!  Talk about over-valuing your own assets.  There’s a difference between potential talent and realized talent; Espinosa completely encapsulates the difference.  Yes we know that he’s a plus-plus defender who can hit 20 bombs from the shortstop position.  But he has regressed year to year at the plate and now will be lucky to play in the majors again before the Sept 1st callup.  Why would the Royals possibly do this deal?   Thank god this is just a local chat and not one of these national ESPN chats where Nats fans in general would be lampooned for trade ideas like this.  Boswell doesn’t really even give an opinion on this one.

How much longer is Haren going to be wearing this hat? Photo nats official via espn.com

The Nats management waited and waited, but finally gave in and dealt with season-long performance issues in Henry Rodriguez, Zach Duke, Danny Espinosa and Tyler Moore in the first two weeks of June, DFA-ing or demoting as needed and bringing in replacements to try to do a better job and turn this season around.

So, when will it be time to talk about the train-wreck season that Dan Haren is having?  For $13M, here’s what the team has gotten in his first 12 starts, including June 12th’s meltdown:

• a 4-8 Record with a 5.70 ERA and a 67 ERA+ (his ERA is 6th worst in baseball for qualified pitchers).
• A 6-10 team record in games in which he’s started
• a league leading 17 home runs allowed

A quick glance at his advanced stats doesn’t give much credence to any apologists that may try to excuse his line either; his BABIP is slightly elevated but not overly so (.320) and his FIP is still an unsightly 5.06 (5th worst among qualified starters).  Only his expected xFIP and SIERA numbers are relatively respectable, but xFip is just an estimator stat and often times never comes to pass, since it assumes silly things like the fact that Haren can’t possibly keep giving up this many home runs… an assumption that continued to be disproven as he gave up two more in his most recent loss in Colorado.

Game-Log analysis: Haren has yet to have a start where he shut out the opponent.  He’s only got 5 quality starts out of 12.  In half his starts he’s allowed 4 or more runs (not good when your team’s offense is only scoring 3.4 runs a game).  Haren’s only really had a couple of starts that were “grade A” in my book (his best start of the year was an 8 inning 4 hit performance in Atlanta of all places).  In his defense, he has gotten awful run support (2.84 runs per start), heavily indicating team losses every time he pitches.

I’ll admit it; I talked myself into the Haren deal big time after it was announced.  I ignored his 2012 struggles, looked back to the near Cy Young guy he was in 2009 and thought this was the move that could push the Nats to a 105 win team.  Now clearly whatever excuses we made for his performance in 2012 (back injury leading to diminished velocity leading to loss of his sinker leading to crummy numbers) seem like they’re covering up for an aging sinkerballer who never had lights out velocity and who now looks dangerously close to extinct as his very-hittable fastball flattens out and gets hit harder and harder.

So what’s the answer here?

Don’t talk to me about his salary; that $13M is out the door already.  Kaput.  Gone.  Look up the definition of a “Sunk Cost” in economic terms.  If you were worried about $13M in annual salary then you shouldn’t have bought a $15M a year closer who isn’t exactly a complete shutdown guy (Tyler Clippard has almost identical stats this year to Rafael Soriano for a third of the price and he didn’t cost us a 1st round draft pick, which as it turned out could have been spent on one of two pre-draft top-10 talents).  The decision needs to be made; do you still want to try to “win now” in 2013 as all the other off-season moves seemed to indicate?  Because the solution likely is going to be a bit more money and a few more prospects.

Short term (as in, the next week): see how Ross Ohlendorf does in his spot start (Answer: uh, he did awesome, holding a good hitting team to two hits through 6 in the best hitters park in the league).  If he’s anything remotely close to effective, I think you look at an invented D/L trip for Haren and send him on a rehab assignment tour of the minors.

Mid-term (as in, for the next couple weeks): do we have anyone else in the minors worth checking out?  Not on the 40-man and not with enough experience.  Maybe we give Danny Rosenbaum a shot if another spot-start is needed after Detwiler and Strasburg come back.

Longer term (as in, the next two months); Look at the trade market and look at who may be available leading up to the trade deadline.  We’re already seeing some teams completely out of it and clearly some guys will be available:

• The Cubs probably will look to move Scott Feldman and especially Matt Garza.
• The Astros probably will cash in on Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris (nobody’s likely interested in Erik Bedard at this point).
• The Marlins would listen for offers for Ricky Nolasco, though perhaps not intra-division.
• The Mets aren’t winning this year and could be moving Shawn Marcum (though perhaps not intra-division).
• I think eventually Seattle becomes a seller: Joe Saunders and Aaron Harang should be dangled.
• I also think San Diego eventually realizes they’re not going to win the NL West: Edinson Volquez, waiver pickup Eric Stults, Clayton Richards and our old friend Jason Marquis all make for possible trade candidates.

A few other poorly performing teams are probably going to be too stubborn to wave the white flag, which cuts down on the number of guys that will be available (see the Los Angeles Angels, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto specifically).

The only problem with a trade market move is this: all these teams are going to want prospects back.  And the Nats prospect cupboard has been cleaned out recently to acquire all these fools who are underperforming so far in 2013.  I’m not an opposing GM, so I can’t say for sure, but from a quick look at the Nats best prospects in the minors right now (basically in order: Giolito, Goodwin, Cole, Karns, Garcia, Skole, Purke, Solis, Perez, then guys like Hood, Taylor, Walters, Ray and Jordan round out the list) and I see a lot of injured guys or players on injury rehab, backups or guys barely above or still in A-ball.  I’m not trading a valued asset for an injury-risk guy who has never gotten above AA.  Who on this list is going to fetch us a quality major league starter?

Maybe we trade Haren along with a huge chunk of his remaining salary and multiple prospects to one of these teams in order to get one of these 5th starters back.  But that’d be an awful trade when it was all said and done (about as awful as, say, the Giants trading Zack Wheeler to the Mets for 2 months of Carlos Beltran in a failed effort to make the playoffs in 2012; with all the Giants 2013 pitching issues do you think they wish they had Wheeler back right now??)

Or, it very well may be that the Nats are stuck; we knew going into the season we had no starter depth and those MLFAs we did acquire (Ohlendorf and Chris Young basically) probably aren’t the answer.  But something has to give; we can’t give away every 5th start like we seem to be doing now and claw back into the NL East race.

Meet Jake Johansen, the Nats 2nd round 2013 pick. Photo via DBU website

A quick glance on our high-end draftees from 2013 draft.  As with other posts, I’ll put in the Keith Law and Baseball America ranking after the player name where appropriate (though as we’ll see, Keith’s top 100 quickly runs out of names).

Two other blogs are doing a far more in-depth look at these picks than I am here; definitely see Ryan Kelley‘s fantastic scouting reports on each pick at BaseballNewsHound.com and see Ryan Sullivan‘s excellent draft day blog coverage at NatsGM.com for more and better in-sight than what I’ve got here.  Plus Tom Schad at MLB.com has posted nice per-player summaries for all the Nats picks.   I’m just looking for a quick hit observation on our new guys.

• Rnd #1/#28 overall: In what would have been the Nats first round pick, the Cardinals selected Rob Kaminsky, a prep RHP from New Jersey.   However at that point in the draft high-end prep lefty Ian Clarkin, pre-draft top-10 pick LHP Sean Manaea from Indiana State University and highly-regarded Arkansas RHP Ryne Stanek (another guy who was seen as an upper-end 1st rounder earlier this year with fantastic stuff) were still on the board.   Don’t you think the Nats wouldn’t have minded a shot at Manaea or Stanek at above-slot and then punted on below-slot guys the rest of the way (kinda what they did in 2012 with Lucas Giolito and a senior-heavy first 10 rounds)?  Both Manaea and Stanek dropped just in the past few weeks because of short-term injuries and both seem like steals at the end of the 1st round.  Man I would have liked to see one of these two guys added to the farm system. Was this worth the Rafael Soriano signing?

• Rnd #2/#68 overall: Jake Johansen, RHP from Dallas Baptist University.  Keith Law ranked #63, Baseball America ranked #180.  This is a classic Mike Rizzo pick; a big guy (6’6″) with a big arm (98-100mph on the fastball, sustained through out the game).  Its almost like they’re trying to replace Alex Meyer in the farm system.  Johansen’s college numbers leave something to be desired: 5.40 era this season, a career ERA > 6.00.  Some have pointed out he has a very high BABIP on the year and that his conference is a hitter’s paradise; fair counter points).  For a guy who throws so hard, he had surprisingly few Ks this year (75 Ks in 88 1/3 innings).   His size and profile seems to trend towards an automatic reliever, but the Nats profile him as a starter.  You can’t teach velocity right?  The Nats execs are already on record saying that they’re drafting the tools and they believe they can coach him up.  FederalBaseball has a nice writeup on him with good quotes and the Nats press release on the pick too.  Masn’s Byron Kerr‘s write-up is here.  Already some pundits questioning the pick (HardBallTalk).  My thought?  I would have liked to have drafted a polished guy with our highest pick, not a project.  6/8/13 update: already signed for slot value.  Wow that was fast.  Clearly smells like a pre-draft deal here.
• Rnd #3/#105 Overall: Drew Ward, prep SS/3B from Oklahoma.  BA #88.  Prep 3B who’s graduating a year early and with an Oklahoma commitment.    I don’t think he graduated HS a year early so he could get to college; he’ll sign.  Nice FederalBaseball writeup about him.  Keith Law isn’t a fan.
• Rnd #4/#136 Overall: Nicholas “Nic” Pivetta, RHP  from a New Mexico Juco.   BA #155.  The MLB scouting reports say he’s an upper 90s fastball in short spurts and may be headed for the bullpen.  Sounds like a Rizzo pick to me.  Are you sure we’re not drafting for need at the MLB level right now?  :-).  All signs point to reliever.  Maybe we’re so happy with our High-A rotation right now that we’re just focusing on relivers who can go straight to AA and matriculate up the ranks with our current set of starters?
• Rnd #5/#166 Overall: Austin Voth, RHP from University of Washington.  BA #260.  Seems like an over draft, might be a signability pick, though Voth fits the profile of a good K/9 guy.  He was the University of Washington’s friday starter, he was 2nd in the Pac-12 in strikeouts to #1 overall pick Mark Appel and had pretty good stats for a sub-.500 college team.
• Rnd #6/#196 Overall: Cody Gunter 3B/RHP from Texas Juco.   BA #249.  Could be another reliever, but likely was drafted to play the field.  MLB.com’s writeup on him is here.
• Rnd #7/#226 Overall: James Yezzo, 1B from UDelaware.  BA #290.  You usually don’t like to draft 1B-only guys on NL teams, especially ones who are only 6’0″, but Yezzo clubbed his way to the CAA player of the year honor and hit .410 with power in a 3-big conference with some good baseball.
• Rnd #8/#256 Overall: David Napoli, LHP from Tulane.   Not BA ranked.  A weekend senior starter for Tulane with a great BA against for one probable reason; he seems wild as heck.  33 walks in 66 innings and FOURTEEN Hbps this year.  He had a fantastic batting average against (.176) and was even better in H/9 against (5.32 hits per 9, 2nd in the NCAA this year), but that’s easier to do when you’re all over the plate.  Looks like a loogy to me; undersized (5’10” 180lb) and ok stuff (threw 87 in HS, reportedly can hit 93-94 in short stints).  We’ll see.
• Rnd #9/#286 Overall: Jake Joyce, RHP from Virginia Tech.  Not BA ranked.  A prototypical round 6-9 pick; college senior, little leverage, will sign for below slot to save cash.  Per the MLB.com story on him, a nats executive knows the family and made the recommendation.  95 out of the pen for Va Tech; you just hope that a reliever in college is going to be successful in the pros.
• Rnd #10/#316 Overall: Brennan Middleton, SS from Tulane.  Say hello to Auburn’s starting SS this year.

First 10 round summary:

• Four college RHP who mostly project to relievers
• One college LHP who definitely projects as a reliever
• Three college infielders; a 1B, a SS and a 3B.
• One prep 3B who may be a tougher sign with a college commitment

So far, pretty typical Rizzo draft; college heavy with a focus on power arms destined for the bullpen.  Is there one big name in this list to get excited about?  Unfortunately not so far, but not having a 1st rounder and a crack at a big name (as described in the “possible 1st round missed” bullet point will leave a draft class wanting.

Robbie Ray is having a nice bounce-back 2013 so far. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

In 2011, I managed to do “Rotational Review” posts for both the MLB team and the minor league system for the whole summer.   That turned out to be a pretty hefty time commitment, and an endeavor that I couldn’t keep up with.  I managed to do all 33 MLB rotation reviews but gave up on the minor league systems around the all-star break. For the entirety of 2012 I never once published much of an in-season look at any of the minor league teams.  But I want to stay aware of the minor league pitchers; its basically the reason I started this blog.  I wanted to be up on the rising talent, always on the lookout for the next home grown pitching talent.

In 2013, I’ve modified my approach.  With the help of daily doses of Luke Erickson‘s NationalsProspects.com daily looks, I’m taking the time to give a quick “grade” to each Starter’s outing by looking at the stat-line and the peripherals, in order to gauge how guys are looking.  Instead of the previous “good-bad-soso” analysis, I’ve adopted somewhat of a letter grade system, from A+ to F.  It isn’t a hard and fast grading system, but generally speaking we start with a run-of-the-mill quality start being graded a C (lets face it, 3 earned runs in 6 innings for a 4.50 ERA is average) and then go from there.  6 shutout innings gets somewhere between an A+ and an A- depending on # of hits/walks/Ks, while a complete meltdown (e.g. 7 runs in 3 innings) earns an F.  You get the idea.

So, without further ado, here’s the April 2013 look at the starters by team, with grades for outings and some commentary.  We’ll do an expanded view of the MLB rotation in the next post.  The grades are through 4/30’s outings; the stats may be slightly off since I wrote the bulk of this prior to this morning.

AAA Rotation

• Ohlendorf: A,B,D+,D,C-
• Young: F,D
• Maya: C,D,D,F,D-
• Perry: D-,B+,C-,B
• Rosenbaum: A-,A,C+,A

• Roark: A,D,F->demoted to bullpen,A
• Tatusko: D,A-

Discussion: Syracuse YTD Stats are here for reference

(A quick note explaining the notation; the top 5 pitchers are the current rotation, and guys who have been starters before promotions or demotions, or who have spot starts are noted below the current rotational members.  The rotation is listed in current appearance order).

So far, the AAA rotation (which i like to call the “desperately seeking to find an injury backup starter” group) has been mostly a mess this year.  Former Major league starters Ross Ohlendorf and Chris Young sport ERAs of 5.46 and 9.00 respectively.  Yunesky Maya has been even worse; a 7.45 ERA and a 1.62 whip.  Ryan Perry rebounded after a rough debut outing.  Tanner Roark was holding Young’s rotation spot and was either excellent or awful; even with two grade-A outings he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA in 21 1/3 innings.  Only Danny Rosenbaum has shown himself worthy of a potential call up; after trying out for the Colorado rotation all spring on a Rule-5 invitation, he was returned and has really thrown well in Syracuse.  (side note on Rosenbaum; is he now officially “Daniel?”  Sort of how we went from Tom Milone to Tommy?  I’ll have to update all my tags in the blog system).

In the Bullpen, Erik Davis, Fernando Abad and JC Romero each sport sub 1.00 ERAs in relief; the rest of the bullpen ranges from mediocre to awful.  As noted in a prior post comment, there’s not a lot of relief backup were one of our MLB arms to go down.  Davis is showing why the team protected him last November though.

AA Rotation

• Broderick: C-,C+,B-,F,B-
• Treinen: F,D,A,C,B+
• Demny: A-,D,C,C-,F
• Clay: D,A,A,C,B+
• Karns: F,A,A,B+

• Holder: C

Discussion: Harrisburg YTD Stats are here for reference

As with Syracuse, there’s a lot of up-and-down so far in Harrisburg.  Brian Broderick, who should be in AAA frankly, is barely holding on in AA.  He’s yet to have anywhere close to a dominant outing.  Blake Treinen (throw-in from the Michael Morse trade) started really slow and has clawed his way back to respectability.  Paul Demny has been up and down too.  Caleb Clay (a MLFA signing who spent 6 years in the Boston organization) has been surprisingly sucessful as an Eastern League starter; he was relatively UNsuccessful the last two years playing for Boston’s AA affiliate in the same league as a middle reliever.  We’ll see if he can keep this up.  Lastly Nathan Karns, who in my mind is the “next best Nats starter prospect” to keep an eye on (with apologies to Rosenbaum, AJ Cole and Lucas Giolito) himself rebounded from an awful 2013 debut to put in 3 dominant starts.  He now sits with a 3.80 ERA and 29 ks in 21 innings through 5 starts with nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio.

Trevor Holder got a spot start and has been otherwise decent.  Ian Krol (the PTBNL in the Morse trade) has been lights out; one run allowed in 13+ innings so far.  Michael Broadway, who we picked up as a MLFA just a few days before the season started, has also been good in short sample sizes.   Aaron Barrett has 4 saves and 15 ks to just 3 walks in his 11 innings this month.  Most of the rest of the Harrisburg bullpen are showing great K/9 rates right now with good numbers thus far.

High-A Rotation

• Ray: A-,B,B-,A,A
• Jordan: A,B,B+,B-,B-
• Cole: D,B,D,D,C+
• Schwartz: A,A
• Hill: C+,A-,A+,C,C-

• Turnbull: D-,D,F->demoted

Discussion: Potomac YTD Stats are here for reference

Potomac is led by a series of guys who are all on good rolls.  Robbie Ray, Taylor Jordan and Taylor Hill each are sporting sub 2.00 ERAs at the end of the month.  Hill’s outings are a combination of excellent and mediocre; his stat line looks better than his Start grade line.  Kylin Turnbull turned out not to be ready for High-A, but his promoted replacement Blake Schwartz certainly looked like he was ready in his first start (6ip, 3hits, zero runs) and followed up that outing with another dominant outing on 4/30.   Only A.J. Cole has really struggled out of this group, a disappointing start so far for the re-captured prospect.   Is High-A going to turn out to be his tripping point?  The California league is tough on hitters, but the Carolina league isn’t; what is going on with Cole?

In the bullpen, Tyler Herron has an amazing 20 Ks in 10 1/3 innings, while Richie Mirowski has given up just 4 hits in his 10+ innings of work for the month.

Low-A Rotation

• Anderson: B+,B+,A,B,A
• Turnbull: A
• Pineyro: D,D,Inc,C-,A+
• RPena: B,F,D,A-,B+
• Encarnation: B+,C-,C-

• Schwartz: B+,A,B-,A+->promoted
• Mooneyham: B-,A,A->dl
• Dupra: B,A,B-,D->promoted

• Rauh: C,C,B-,D-
• Fischer: A+
• Hudgins: A,A-

Discussion: Hagerstown YTD Stats are here for reference

Hagerstown has a “rotation,” and then they have something akin to a “tandem” pitching plan in place, where the 2nd guy in goes nearly as long as the starter.  Hence the larger number of guys who are given grades on their “starts,” when in reality guys in the lower group don’t have any starts.  If a guy goes 3-4 innings in a game, they generally have a grade here.

Dixon Anderson is leading the way with 5 excellent outings and a 2.25 era/0.87 whip.  Brett Mooneyham had three good starts as well before hitting the D/L.  Schwartz proved too dominant in his 4 outings (21 Ks in 14 innnings) and was promoted; Dupra’s line earned him a promotion as well.  Pedro Encarnation is finally putting it together outside of short-season.  Turnbull looked very dominant in his low-A return as expected.   David Fischer and Wil Hudgins longer outings may have been good, but their other outings have drug down their stat lines.  DSL grad Pineyro is somewhat holding his own in full-season ball, with up and down nights that hopefully will even out.  Lastly Ronald Pena is living up to his “sleeper” potential; the 16th round 2012 draft pick has picked up right where he left off in full-season ball.

Lots of questions about Gonzalez and Garcia this week. Photo unknown credit.

Hey, what great timing for another Bill Ladson inbox (posted 2/5/13).  Baseball news is light, pitchers and catchers report in a week or so, and I’m not quite ready to continue my Stats series.

As always, I write my answer before reading his, and sometimes edit questions for clarity:

Q: Do you think general manager Mike Rizzo will add starting pitching depth before Opening Day? Does the lingering possibility of a Gio Gonzalez suspension change whom the Nationals would consider acquiring?

A: In Ladson’s 1/22/13 mailbag, some one asked what could prevent the Nats as constructed from winning the World Series in 2013.  I answered Rotation Injuries and Luck.  Well, in the wake of the Miami PED scandal, I guess the third answer may be “PED scandal.”

This is a tough question to answer; Gio Gonzalez has denied the rumors, but the newspaper in question (the Miami New Times) clearly only named Gonzalez because they felt like the evidence they had in hand was irrefutable.  Many other players have not been named.  So as a GM; how do you go about preparing for 2013 at this point?   If Mike Rizzo knows that Gonzalez is getting suspended, you have to think he’s on the horn to his buddy Scott Boras about possibly buying Kyle Lohse, which is clearly the best remaining FA starter.  But Lohse isn’t coming cheap, and likely isn’t coming on a one year deal, and would cost another draft pick (I believe).  The Nats are already topping $120M in payroll; would they go to $135M?

If we think Gio at least gets a pass and the suspension is put off, maybe Rizzo’s recent activities of signing random starters to minor league contracts is going to be sufficient.

Ladson mentions Javier Vazquez and the ever-present rumors of Christian Garcia going to the rotation as possible Gonzalez replacements if he gets suspended quickly.  Probably fair; Vazquez may be a great, cheap alternative.

Q: Everyone is saying that it’s going to be a two-team race in the National League East between the Nationals and Braves. Do you think the Phillies have a shot to contend with both these teams, or is their time done?

A: Boy, its hard to look at the aging, expensive Phillies lineup they had in place in 2012, which suffered injuries and setbacks and creaked their way to a .500 record, and then look at the highly questionable slew of acquisitions and signings this off season (Ben Revere, John Lannan, Michael Young, Delmon Young and everyone’s favorite anti-gay advocate Yuniesky Betancourt) and not, well, giggle at where this team is going.  My favorite baseball joke from the off-season goes like this: “The Phillies wanted to get Younger this off-season, so they signed Michael Young and Delmon Young.”

The two Youngs were both negative WAR players last year, Lannan is a 5th starter, Revere was a backup centerfielder who the Phillies traded some decent assets for, and Betancourt is who he is (though admittedly he’s on a minor league deal and seems at best set to be a utility infielder behind starters Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley).  I see the Phillies being a very bad defensive team with the two Youngs in the starting lineup, I see some serious questions in the back side of the rotation, and I see continued regression and louder complaints about Ryan Howard‘s contract.  Fun times a-coming in Philadelphia.  Ladson actually says that the Phillies will “be improved with Michael Young.”  Bill!  Have you seen Young’s WAR figures from 2012??  He was a NEGATIVE WAR player at both major War sites.  That means he makes your team worse!    Now, he was completely servicable in 2011 … so if you want to make the argument to me that 2012 was an aberration for an aging hitter playing in a hitter’s park, well I guess that’s a stance you can take.  But pretty much every other pundit in the blogosphere has loudly criticized the Philadelphia moves this off-season.

Q: What is the status of Lucas Giolito? When do you see him pitching in D.C.?

A: Tommy John surgery in Late August (I can’t remember the exact date; it was 8/24/12 when I posted this highly-critical article about Lucas Giolito and the situation), so figuring a typical 12-month rehab session before he’s actively throwing again in pro-games basically puts him at the end of the 2013 minor league season.  Which means he’ll be 20 before he really is ready to start his pro career in the spring of 2014.  Figure 4-5 years average case for typical high schoolers to work their way up the systems (perhaps fewer years given his talents and pedigree, as we’ve seen with someone like Dylan Bundy in 2012, who made his way from low-A to AA in his first pro season out of HS and got a late Sept callup to the majors) and we’re probably looking at 2016-2017 before seeing him in the majors.  If, of course, he recovers from surgery, hasn’t destroyed his mechanics, is effective, matures, doesn’t get re-injured, or any of the million other pitfalls that typically befall high school arms drafted in the upper rounds.  Ladson thinks he’s pitching pro games “after the all-star break” and is in the majors in 3 years.  Wow.  That is optimistic.

Q: How do you think Henry Rodriguez will do? And what do you think his role in the bullpen will be?

A: I am, and always have been, pessimistic on Henry Rodriguez.  I hated the Willingham trade that got him here.  He’s forced the team to invent injuries to stash him on the DL coming out of spring training b/c he has no options.  He led the league in wild pitches in 2011 in just 65 innings.  He had a 69 ERA+ in 2012.  At some point when does the team say, “OK, its nice that he throws 100mph.  But enough is enough; we need a reliable pitcher who can deliver when called upon.”  Perhaps Spring Training 2013 is that time.

What do I think his role will be?  I’m sure he’ll look great in Spring Training again, will break camp with the team, and very well may look halfway decent for a while.  But just like every other season, he’s going to have those 3-walk outings where he pitches a 1/3 of an inning and gives up 4 runs, and then the manager will be afraid to use him unless the team has a 5-run lead.  And eventually we’ll call up Garcia to replace him and move on.  That’s my prediction for Rodriguez.  Ladson says the team should “attempt to trade him if he is not impressive this spring.”  Wow, that’s sage advice; if only every team could trade its under-performing players and actually get value back whenever it wanted.

Q: Can you predict Washington’s Opening Day lineup if all available players are healthy?

A: Easy.  I’ll even predict the batting order.  Span-Werth-Harper-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Desmond-Espinosa-Suzuki-Strasburg.  Ladson predicts the same names but in a lineup order that makes no sense from a lefty-righty balance perspective.

Q: After announcing his retirement, do you think Brian Schneider is a possible candidate to replace Johnson as manager of the Nationals?

A: Wow, yet another speculative question about the future Nationals Manager.   He took a question about the manager on 1/28/13, and on 1/22/13.  And on 1/14/13.   I guess people like speculating on the Nats next manager.  Not repeating what i’ve said on the topic before, is Brian Schneider a candidate?  Why would he possibly be a candidate to manage the major league team of a system he left 5 years ago?  Why would the Nats pick a manager who’s never managed a day in his life?   Ladson breathes some common sense on this one.

Q: I think Garcia has to be on the Opening Day roster, so is he in the bullpen or someplace else? Can the 25-man roster accommodate him and all the other pitchers?

A: “Someplace else?”  Like where?  In the outfield?   I like Garcia too, but the team has a numbers problem in the bullpen.  Storen, Clippard, Mattheus, and Stammen have all more than earned their spots.  Soriano is being paid a ton of money.  Duke is guaranteed a spot (he’s the only lefty and he’s got enough service time to refuse a demotion).  Oh, and Rodriguez has no options.  So there’s your 7-man bullpen.  Notice there’s only one left-hander out there; if you believe that you need left-handers to get left-handed batters out, then the bullpen needs to sacrifice one of the righties in order to have a second lefty (Bill Bray?) in there.

The only way I see Garcia making this bullpen is if the team runs out of patience with Rodriguez and DFAs/DLs him, or if the team trades away one of their closer-quality surplus guys, or if maybe someone like Mattheus/Stammen (both of whom do have options) struggles or gets hurt.  Otherwise look for Garcia to get stretched out and get looks as a starter in AAA.  Ladson says he’s confident Garcia is on the 25-man roster …. ok explain it to me then based on the above paragraph.  Who is he replacing?

Face of the Franchise Zimmerman easily represents the best player drafted in the Washington era (by WAR). Photo team official

This is the Third in a long-delayed series of “Best of” posts, breaking down the transactions of both the club’s General Managers.  Previously:

1. Biggest/Best/Worst Trades in Nats History (March 2012)

2. Biggest/Best/Worst Free Agent signings in Nats History (November 2012).

Here’s Part 3: looking at the Biggest, Best and Worst Draft picks the team has made since arriving here in Washington.

Ground rules for this article:

1. Unlike the trades and free agent posts, assiging “credit” or “blame” for draft picks on the General Manager is not entirely straightforward.  Baseball teams rely heavily on Scouting Directors and their staffs when it comes to the draft, especially once you get past the first few rounds.  So, perhaps for the purposes of this article it is better to talk about the “Reign of Jim Bowden” and the “Reign of Mike Rizzo” instead of insinuating that every draft decision was made by the GM during these times.  Much like the President of the US gets credit/blame when  the US economy as a whole rises or falls (whether or not you’d like to argue that a president’s decisions can influence a multi-trillion dollar economy), so does the GM get the credit/blame for his staff’s draft picks.  Most baseball pundits that I’ve read generally say that the GM/Team Ownership is always directly involved in making any 1st round and supplemental first round picks (because of the money), and will be involved if over-slot bonuses come up in later rounds, but that by the 5th round or so the entire draft is being conducted without the GM’s involvement.  Which leads us to point #2…

2. Related to #1; Mike Rizzo, whom Bowden hired in July of 2006, may not have been the Scouting Director but he certainly had a say in the drafts (coming from a scouting background in Arizona).   I’ll list scouting directors tenure here as well, related to #1 and #2.  But, it probably isn’t going to be entirely fair to the GM to say that such-and-such a pick was “good” or “bad” if it was actually being done by his staff.

3.  It is entirely “hindsight is 20/20” in nature.  But, it is what it is.  If you draft a 1st rounder who flames out in low-A, he’s a failure.  If you draft a major leaguer in the 21st round, he’s a fantastic success.  Mostly here in judging the “best draft picks” I’m looking for value in later rounds.  As it turns out judging “worst” draft picks mostly will be around first round busts.

Just for review, here’s the tenure period of both GMs:

And here’s the tenure period of Scouting Directors during our time here in Washington:

• Mid 2002 – Mar 2009: Dana Brown
• Mar 2009 – Present: Kris Kline

As we saw with the Free Agent post, Rizzo clearly had more money to work with from Ownership than Bowden did.  Spending $2M on a 4th round pick (AJ Cole) would have been unheard of in the Bowden reign.

Rizzo’s Too Soon to Tell Draft Picks

• 2010 2nd rnd: Sammy Solis was looking promising out of U San Diego, but has been side lined by Tommy John Surgery.
• The 2011 college-arm gamble: Rizzo drafted dozens of college players this draft, stocking the system with experienced amateurs.
• 2012 1st: the Lucas Giolito gamble won’t play itself out for a couple of years, but it is safe to say Rizzo went “all in” on this player.  A 1-1 talent but damaged goods upon drafting, the team is putting a lot of faith into its experience in dealing with hurlers going through Tommy John.
• 2011 3rd: Matt Purke got a MLB deal and a whole lot of money, and has done relatively nothing to earn it because of lingering shoulder injuries.  I’m listing him as too early to tell, but the signs are not good.

The Nats liked Mooneyham a lot more than pundits did. How did he do in his first pro season? Photo via mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com

John Sickels writes the very good blog located at www.minorleagueball.com.  He does profiles on Minor League players, reviews the day’s marquee Minor League games, and generally does a good job highlighting the guys down on the farm.

Late this past season he embarked on a project where he has reviewed the performance of EVERY draft pick, by round, from the 2012 draft.  This, as you might imagine, is one heck of an effort.  In fact, in one of his later posts, he admitted he may not have the sanity to continue this all the way through all 40 rounds of players.  In fact, he didn’t; he made it through 17 rounds and last posted on this thread 9/27/12.  So I’ve completed his quick-hit analysis/statistical summary for the rest of our picks who debuted this year.

Below is a cutting-n-pasting of Sickels’ round-by-round analysis of the Nats players taken.  I’ve put in links in the form of the “Round N” at each spot so you could read his original post.  The (YY) number is overall draft pick positioning.  Lastly, he started this series in mid-August, so I’ve updated the first several playerswriteups from Sickels’ to have season-ending stats, but his blurb is usually still accurate enough.  After round 17, I’ve filled in the details in Sickel’s style for the rest of our draftees.

(For draft reference, click here for the fantastic Nationals Drafttrack Google XLS, created by Brian Oliver and now maintained by “SpringfieldFan.”  Also, for 2012 draftee information, thanks to Sean Hogan‘s 2012 Nats draft pick blog research, which I’ve quoted at various places here.  He has the best available summary of each draftee’s information.

Round 1: (#16 overall) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals: Threw two innings in the Gulf Coast League on August 14^th.  [Editors Note: obviously we all know by now that those two innings resulted in Giolito’s blowing the partially torn UCL, and he has subsequently had Tommy John surgery.  My thoughts on the pick and the resulting surgery have been published here before].

Round 2: (80) Tony Renda, 2B, Washington Nationals: .264/.341/.295 with 31 walks, 33 strikeouts, 15-for-18 in steals over 295 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Controlling zone well, steady glove, but lack of pop is disappointing.  He did improve his average 30 points in the last few weeks of the season, finishing hot.

Round 3: (111) Brett Mooneyham, LHP, Washington Nationals: 2.55 ERA with 29/16 K/BB in 42 1/3 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 36 hits. Just like in college: looks like a pitcher, good arm, but doesn’t dominate the way you think he should.  Like Renda, a couple of good late outings improved his peripherals.

Round 4: (144) Brandon Miller, OF, Washington Nationals: .292/.354/.549 with four homers, 10 walks, 36 strikeouts in 113 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Small sample, but fits the scouting reports perfectly: he’s got a ton of power, but struggles for contact.

Round 5: (174) Spencer Kieboom, C, Washington Nationals: .258/.362/.305 with 19 walks, 24 strikeouts in 128 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Has thrown out 44% of runners, but bat looks doubtful.

Round 6: (204) Hayden Jennings, OF, Washington Nationals: .192/.254/.231 with 11 walks, 70 strikeouts in 156 at-bats in the GCL. Has stolen 17 bases in 19 attempts, but his strikeout rate is obscene.

Round 7: (234) Robert Benincasa, RHP, Washington Nationals: 3.09 ERA with 32/3 K/BB in 23 1/3 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 27 hits, 2.00 GO/AO. Slot bonus from college, could move quickly as reliever if healthy, just went on DL [Editor’s note: the DL trip seemed innocuous, a roster manipulation at season’s end].

Round 8: (264) Stephen Perez, SS, Washington Nationals: Below slot bonus for college infielder, awful hitter so far, .222/.252/.364 with four walks, 40 strikeouts in 99 at-bats between GCL and NY-P. Glovework also disappointing. Has good tools but didn’t play up to expectations in college at Miami, and hasn’t in pro ball so far either.

Round 9: (294) Derek Self, RHP, Washington Nationals: Below slot college pitcher, solid in pro ball so far, 3.27 ERA with 25/8 K/BB in 33 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 32 hits, 14 saves. Good fastball/cutter combination.

Round 10: (324) Craig Manuel, C, Washington Nationals: College backstop with good defensive and intangible rep, bat questions kept him to a small bonus. So far, hitting .287/.376/.315 with 16 walks, 11 strikeouts in 143 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P, with 41% of runners caught. If he had any power at all, he’d be a major sleeper.

Round 11: (354) Brian Rauh, RHP, Washington Nationals: Slot bonus for college pitcher, 3.99 ERA with 43/26 K/BB in 59 innings for Auburn in the NY-P and Hagerstown in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Held his own in pro ball although component ratios aren’t great.

Round 12: (384) Carlos Lopez, 1B, Washington Nationals: Below slot bonus college first baseman, solid slugger at Wake Forest but didn’t repeat success as a pro, .253/.332/.376 with three homers, 20 walks, 50 strikeouts in 170 at-bats for Auburn in the NY-P. Age 22.

Round 13: (414) Elliott Waterman, LHP, Washington Nationals: Slot bonus college pitcher from San Francisco, 4.97 ERA with 24/22 K/BB in 25 innings for Auburn in the NY-P, 31 hits. Held back by control issues at this point. Age 21.

Round 14: (444) Jordan Poole, OF, Washington Nationals: Another junior college guy, this one from Florida, name was called as a pitcher but he played outfield in pro ball, hit .205/.264/.295 with 10 walks, 58 strikeouts in 132 at-bats between GCL and NY-P. That won’t get it done.

Round 15: (474) Brandon Smith, OF, Washington Nationals: California prep didn’t sign, honored committment to Grand Canyon University.

Round 16: (504) Ronald Pena, RHP, Washington Nationals: Junior college pitcher from Florida, low 90s stuff, 6-4, 195 build, 12 innings with a 2.92 ERA and a 9/1 K/BB, five hits allowed between GCL and NY-P. Sleeper potential.

Round 17: (534) Blake Schwartz, RHP, Washington Nationals: College senior from Oklahoma City University, originally from Minnesota, performed well in pro debut with 3.05 ERA, 41/11 K/BB in 38 innings, 39 hits in the South Atlantic League. Considered a sleeper by some Midwestern scouts due to his command.

Round 18: (564) David Fischer, RHP, Washington Nationals: College senior from U-Conn, the lanky right handed hurler (6’5″, 175lb) struggled in his Short-A debut, posting a 4.96 ERA, 31/14 K/BB in 49 innings, 56 hits.  Fischer only had a GO/AO ratio of 1.11, so he needs to work on keeping the ball on the ground in 2013.  Considered a possible top-10 talent early in the 2012 college season, Fischer’s fastball sits 92-93 on a projectionable frame, but his off-speed pitches need work.

Round 19: (594) Brian Lippincott, 1B, Washington Nationals: a College senior from Concordia, this left-handed batting first baseman hit .281/.361/.374 with 16 walks, 29 strikeouts in 139 GCL at-bats.  This is decent but far less impressive than Lippincott’s college career, where he hit .494 his senior season to led all Division II batters.  He showed some power in college but relatively little in pro-ball; he’ll need to feature more power to stick at first base.

Round 20: (624) James Brooks, SS, Washington Nationals: a College senior from Utah hit .273/.345/.354 with 8 walks, 25 strikeouts in 99 GCL at-bats.  He was 1-32 in 10 games in Auburn before being dropped down to the Rookie League.  Perhaps the most interesting thing about Brooks is his birth place: Melbourne, Australia.  No word yet whether he’s under consideration for Australia’s 2013 WBC team.

Round 21: (654) Austin Chubb, C, Washington Nationals: College senior from Florida Southern hit .209/.260/.373 with 3 walks, 11 strikeouts in 67 GCL at-bats.  He hit left-handers to the tune of .400, but in a catcher-platoon, only catching every third day or so, he struggled to get going in 2013.   He only threw out 3 of 12 runners and allowed 2 passed balls in his 10 games behind the plate.   He’ll have to improve all around in 2013.

Round 22: (684) Will Hudgins, RHP, Washington Nationals: a College senior from Notre Dame (who hails from Richmond, so he has local roots) posted a 2.22 ERA, 31/6 K/BB in 44 2/3 innings, 41 hits split between GCL and AUB.  Decent numbers despite being a 22-yr old in rookie ball, he has some promise as he fills out and moves forward.  Perfect Game only has him with a mid-80s fastball but “with life;” I’m hoping that’s an old reading.

Round 23: (714) Casey Selsor, OF/LHP, Washington Nationals: this College Senior from UT-San Antonio was drafted ostensibly as an outfielder but threw 41 innings in rookie-ball while also getting a handful of at-bats/games in the field.  He did neither relatively well; posting a 6.10 ERA, 34/15 k/bb in those 41 innings giving up 50 hits and seven home runs.  While playing the out-field he was 1-6 in 3 games, hardly a judge-worthy sample size.  The Nats clearly like this guy, having drafted him in 2008 out of high-school, so count on him sticking around at least a couple years.   On the mound, he features as an undersized lefty (he’s only 5’10”) who throws upper 80s but with excellent secondary stuff.

Round 24: (744) Kevin Dicharry, RHP, Washington Nationals: College Senior from University of Texas missed most of his college career with shoulder issues (tendinitis) after an excellent freshman year.  His pro debut looked very promising; 2.84 ERA, 22/4 K/BB in 25 1/3 innings, 19 hits, zero homers allowed.  Dicharry was highly regarded nationally graduating high school (a 2nd team Rawlings All-American and a marquee part of Texas’ recruiting class) and this pick represents a great value pick for the Nats if Dicharry regains some of his past form.  He reportedly is showing a low 90s fastball, a tight curve and a good change this year, to go with his excellent control (nearly a 6-1 k/bb ratio).  A sleeper prospect if he stays healthy.

Round 25: (774) Freddy Avis, RHP, Washington Nationals: California prep didn’t sign, honored commitment to Stanford.

Round 26: (804) Skye Bolt, RHP, Washington Nationals: Georgia prep didn’t sign, honored commitment to UNC.

Round 27: (834) Cody Poteet, RHP, Washington Nationals: California prep didn’t sign, honored commitment to UCLA.

Round 28: (864) Hunter Bailey, SS, Washington Nationals: College senior from Oklahoma State hit .247/.345/.329 with 8 walks, 12 strikeouts in 73 GCL at-bats.  He clearly features as a low-power middle infielder glove and may struggle to stand out in the system.

Round 29: (894) Leonard Hollins, RHP, Washington Nationals: A JuCo 2-year graduate from Chipola college threw 9 no-hit innings in the GCL and then was jumped to low-A, where he posted a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings, 8/7 K/BB ratio, giving up 18 hits.   He’s a submarining right-handed reliever who had a tendency to pitch either a perfect 1-2-3 inning or give up a slew of hits.  He’s tough to get the ball in the air on though; a 3.50 GO/AO ratio in Hagerstown and zero homers given up in 27 IP in his pro debut across both levels.  He could be an intriguing, difficult-to-scout/hard to quantify reliever for the team moving forward.  A sleeper reliever prospect.

Round 30: (924) Robert Orlan, LHP, Washington Nationals: A junior draftee out of UNC, Orlan suffered an elbow  injury late in the college season and was immediately placed on the 60-day DL by the team.  No bonus information is given for the player, who likely signed with the team knowing that a year’s recovery from Tommy John would have cost him his entire senior year of college too.  He profiled as a top-15 round talent, a lefty with decent velocity (upper 80s coming out of HS, presumably more now) and a decent variety of pitches.  Another value pick by the Nats, who could get a later-round steal if Orlan regains some of his promise after injury recovery.

Round 31: (954) Michael Boyden, RHP, Washington Nationals: This college senior out of University of Maryland quickly was promoted out of the GCL and posted a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings of short-A.  His control was pretty bad though: 22/17 K/BB ratio in those 25 innings.  In college he reportedly showed 90-92 with flashes to 94, but dropped because of his size and control issues.  This local product (he grew up in La Plata, played a year at GW and finished at Maryland) likely gets lucky to be drafted by his local team, and we’ll see if his wildness causes some regression on these numbers in the future.

Round 32: (984) Michael Mudron, LHP, Washington Nationals: College senior from Cal State San Bernadino posted a 3.75ERA in 24 innings in the GCL, with a 27/8 K/BB ratio, 16 hits.  A decent K/bb ratio, decent numbers for Mudron (who is incorrectly listed on milb.com as a right-handed pitcher).  I cannot find any scouting information, but assume that he profiles as a lefty match up guy (though his 2012 splits showed little lefty-lefty matchup capability).

Round 33: (1014) Mike McQuillan, 2B, Washington Nationals: College senior from Iowa hit .268/.362/.430 in 149 ABs for Auburn after being promoted out of the GCL.  21 walks and 27 Ks in those 149 Abs.  He features as a classic undersize 2nd baseman with little pop, but if his OBP stays above .350 he should continue to rise in the system.

Round 34: Jake Jeffries, 2B: California Prep did not sign, honored commitment to Cal St. Fullerton.

Round 35: Corey Bafidis, LHP: Texas Weslylan junior opted to return for his senior season.

Round 36: Max Ungar, C: Maryland Prep did not sign, honored commitment to Denison.

Round 37: Tyler Watson, LHP: Texas Prep did not sign, honored commitment to Kansas.

Round 38: Jarred Messer, RHP: Mallone College (OH) junior opted to return for his senior season.

Round 39: Mitchell Williams, C: Georga Prep did not sign, honored commitment to the Marion Institute.

Round 40: Ricky Gutierrez, CF: Florida Prep did not sign, honored his football commitment to U-Conn.

There you have it; your 2012 draft class.  So far, there seems like there’s some definite sleeper potential in the lower rounds and some players who played above their draft position.  I can’t wait to see how the likes of arms Pena, Schwartz, Hudgins, Dicharry and eventually Orlan pan out.

Danny Rosenbaum gets drafted by Colorado in the Rule 5 draft. Photo Jeff Mankie via insidenova.com

The Rule 5 draft was conducted on 12/5/12, the last day of the Winter meetings, and the Nats farm system took a hit.

In the Major League Phase (full results from mlbtraderumors.com), we lost:

• Danny Rosenbaum, who was drafted 3rd overall by the Colorado Rockies.
• Jeff Kobernus, who was taken 7th overall by the Boston Red Sox, and immediately flipped to Detroit for a utility player.

Rosenbaum’s drafting isn’t a huge surprise, given his stature as the leading lefty starter prospect in our system and consistently being mentioned in top 10 lists and all-star teams.  Rosenbaum’s problem is that he projects as a classic back-of-the-rotation lefty; decent but not eye-popping velocity, good control, keeping the ball in the park and giving you consistent innings, and the Nationals current management has little use for such a player.  He projects almost exactly like John Lannan and Tommy Milone, two lefties that Rizzo didn’t covet and who were either flipped or non-tendered.  Now, before bemoaning Rosenbaum’s loss too much, the odds of him being returned seem nearly 100%: Colorado is absolute hell on pitchers.  He joins a team which lost 98 games and whose BEST starter last year posted a 4.43 ERA.  Colorado is stock piling young starter prospects, running them through an unconventional pitch count limit system, and (I guess) seeing who stands out.  Is Rosenbaum any better than the large handful of starters there already?  I don’t think so; I suspect he’ll be back.  Lets just hope he doesn’t return as damaged goods, as Brad Meyer was late last season.

Kobernus has to be excited; he goes from presumably being stuck in the minors for another year to getting a chance to make the 25-man roster team of the defending AL champs as a utility infielder.  Our 2009 2nd round pick signed an under-slot deal (as did nearly everyone else in that draft thanks to the monies paid to Strasburg and Storen) and has posted decent if not flashy numbers in a steady progression through the system.  In 2012 his slash line in AA was .282/.325/.333 and he was a mid-season all-star.  I guess the team decided it just didn’t need a middle infielder who had little to no power (his best OPS season was in 2011 where he just reached .700).  Can he stick in Detroit?  I suspect he could, given the role he’s asked to perform.  However, I worry that (much like Erik Komatsu in 2011, who it should be noted was NOT picked this year despite still being rule-5 eligible) he won’t be able to hit consistently enough to stay with the big team and may eventually be returned.

In the AAA phase, the team also lost:

• Jack McGeary, taken by Boston.
• Hector Nelo, taken by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The departure of McGeary represents the end of a relatively tumultuous relationship between the one time upper-end prospect and team, and serves as a continuing cautionary tale of the risks behind drafting and paying high-end high school arms.  McGeary wanted to attend Stanford and worked out a part-time playing deal to allow him to attend school.  Admirable, but not exactly what a team expects for a $1.8M investment.  After a couple of years he decided to finally focus on baseball first, but blew out his elbow in June 2010.   His late 2011 return looked promising, but injuries cost him most of 2012 as well, pitching a grand total of 9 1/3 innings this year.   After 6 full pro seasons he had yet to advance further than Low-A.   Nats prospect fans have waited years and years for the likes of McGeary, Josh Smoker, Colton Willems and other top-5 talent High school arms to pan out, and have been left wanting.  Arguably the best HS arm the team has drafted since relocating to Washington is Patrick McCoy, a lefty with halfway decent numbers in AA this past year and who has been passed over in two successive rule 5 drafts.  At least the current regime seems to understand this; they’ve signed exactly three HS arms in the last three drafts combined and they’re all familiar names (Giolito, Cole, Ray).

Nelo ended the year as the AA closer, with pretty decent numbers, but himself was a 2011 minor league free agent and seemingly was considered nothing more than an organizational arm for the team.  He was a right handed reliever in a system filled with such players , and his departure shouldn’t be missed too much.

In the end, the Rule 5 draft was as we expected it; it was rather anti-climactic for Nats fans who thought we may get a new player or two to try out.  But as has been stated elsewhere, when the 25-man roster is nearly finalized for the 2013 season, there exists little need to experiment with a rule 5 draftee.