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Werth; the most expensive lead-off hitter in the majors? Photo Mitchell Layton/Getty Images NA

Another edition of mlb.com Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson‘s inbox for 11/16/12. As always, I write my responses before reading his and edit some questions for clarity.

Q: Why are the Nats looking for a lead-off batter when Jayson Werth appeared to do the job very well in 2012? Do the Nats think someone can do that job better, or do they think Werth belongs elsewhere in the batting order?

A: A decent question, which the questioner answered him (her?) self, frankly. From quotes I read from Davey Johnson at the time, when Jayson Werth came back from the wrist injury the team was missing any reasonable lead-off option and Johnson asked Werth if he’d do it. He enthusiastically said yes. My personal opinion is that Werth’s wrist injury probably wasn’t entirely healed to his liking, thus sapping his power stroke and making it easier for him to focus on contact hitting and OBP from the lead-off spot than it would be for him to return to his middle-of-the-order power. He couldn’t have had a better lead-off hitter-esque split from his time there; .309/.388/.450 when hitting from the #1 position this season. That is fantastic. But realistically the Nats need to find another, proper lead-off hitter for two main reasons (one practical, one political); Practically; Werth is a bigger, better hitter than a lead-off guy and needs to be in the middle of the order, driving in runs with his power potential. Politically; you don’t spend #126M on a lead-off guy. I hate to say it, but it is what it is. I wish the Nats had a better internal lead-off option; Danny Espinosa is the natural person to install there. Switch hitter, a very good hitter in the minors. But so far in his career he’s incredibly strike-out prone, his average is disappointing and his lefty/righty splits are awful (as addressed in a separate question further down). The reason the “Nats want a lead-off-centerfielder” rumors won’t go away is directly tied to this fact. Ladson agrees, mentioning frequent FA target Michael Bourn and Angel Pagan as options.

Q: Given Roger Bernadina’s improved hitting this past season, is there any possibility that the Nats may try him as a leadoff hitter?

A: Roger Bernadina absolutely turned a corner professionally in 2012, increasing his OPS+ figure fully 30 points from 2011 and posting a split line of .291/.372/.405. Yeah, that’d be a fantastic line to have at lead-off. I’ll freely admit that I thought Bernadina was closer to a DFA than he was to a valuable spot on this team last spring training. We already know just how good a center-fielder he is defensively, and he’s lefty so he puts another lefty bat in the lineup and would allow the team to move Bryce Harper deeper into the order. Imagine a lineup of Bernadina-Desmond-Zimmerman-Harper-Morse-Werth-Espinosa-Suzuki; LRRLRRSR, giving good lefty-righty balance through the lineup. This lineup of course assumes Adam LaRoche departs as a FA (which I think is likely). Now, do I think this is going to happen? No. I believe the team views Bernadina as a 4th outfielder, a super-sub, defensive replacement for later innings and he thrived in that role last year. But that being said, if the FA market proves too costly (or if the Nats choose to go all-in on a SP and leave the batting lineup as-is), this is absolutely a viable option to try in 2013. Ladson agrees with my sentiments; the Nats view Bernadina as a 4th outfielder.

Q: What do you think of Tony Beasley taking over as Nats manager after Davey Johnson calls it quits? Beasley has the experience. He just needs a chance.

A: Honestly I’d expect Mike Rizzo to bring on-board a more experienced skipper if/when Johnson hangs them up. Perhaps someone from his Arizona days. How many teams really promote from within for on-field management? Ladson thinks Randy Knorr is the heir-apparent.

Q: Why don’t the Nats consider left-hander John Lannan a No. 4 or 5 starter in ’13? Lannan showed he can pitch well in the past.

A: Man, how many times have I answered this question? Lannan is a league-average pitcher, posting a career ERA+ of 103. He isn’t a fireballer and rarely “dominates” a game. Mike Rizzo wants power arms and just doesn’t rate Lannan. He’ll look here and high for a harder-thrower for the 5th starter spot and is likely to roll the dice with hurlers Ryan Perry or Christian Garcia before he goes with Lannan next year. Besides; Lannan would need to be tendered a contract and likely earns at least a nominal raise over the $5M he earned for toiling in AAA last year. It just is not good value to pay $5M for a 5th starter when you’ve got MLB-minimum guys that can possibly do the job just as well. Look for Lannan to get non-tendered and be pitching for a 2nd division team in 2013. Ladson mirrors exactly what I wrote here.

Q: What are the chances of our GM, Mike Rizzo, going after a shutdown closer?

A: Zero. Rizzo (rightly so in my mind) doesn’t rate closers on the open market as worthwhile investments. I agree; I think relievers are fungible assets that are to be used and discarded as needed. Now, if a former closer can be had on the open market cheap, Rizzo absolutely will bring them in. He’s done this more than once in the past; Brad Lidge in 2012, Matt Capps in 2010. Lidge didn’t work out at all but he only cost the team $1M. Capps turned out fantastically, made the all-star team and was flipped for Wilson Ramos in what I think is Rizzo’s best trade (well, the Gio Gonzalez trade wasn’t half bad either). The pickings on the closer FA market are slim, but I could see the team taking a flier on an injury reclamation project like Ryan Madson or Brett Myers. Perhaps even re-signing Capps, who lost his closer role and could be inserted in middle-relief. We do have bigger priorities though; namely replacing our 3 lefty specialists (Tom Gorzelanny is still tied to the club but isn’t a guarantee to get tendered). Ladson says the team has a shutdown closer in Drew Storen and will focus elsewhere.

Q: Is Danny Espinosa really a switch-hitter? He is just horrible from the left side. Why doesn’t he just bat from the right side?

A: Great question, one that I’ve asked many times myself. His career splits lefty/righty are pretty telling. .227/.306/.393 from the left side, .276/.346/.467 from the right. He’s an all-star caliber hitter from the right-side only, posting a 124 OPS+. I privately wonder if the team isn’t going to make the decision for him, and a full spring training just hitting from the right-side could be in order. Of course, his value as a right-handed only hitter is greatly diminished. Plus there’s a life-time of adjustments to be had; if you’ve been facing right handed arms from the left side your whole life, who is to say that you won’t similarly struggle once you’re seeing breaking pitches from the other side? A tough call. My gut says he sticks it out and the team shows the same patience with him that they showed with Desmond, who rewarded the team with a breakthrough 2012. Ladson reports that Johnson has “all the confidence in the world” in Espinosa. Looks like 2013 is a make-it or break-it year for him.

Q: Can Zach Duke start for the Nationals? How does he compare with Zack Greinke?

A: Wow; comparing Zach Duke (a minor league FA signing this year with a career 49-74 record) to Zack Greinke (inarguably the top FA pitcher on the market with a Cy Young to his name) is sort of like comparing a fast-food joint to a steak-house. There is no comparison; Duke is going to be lucky to get a guaranteed contract while Greinke is likely to get a nine-figure deal. Can Duke start for this team? Well, assuming the team resigns him (he’s a free agent) he’s not even as good as Lannan, who they could lock up for 2013 if they choose. And (as discussed above) if the team doesn’t rate Lannan they certainly wouldn’t rate Duke. I don’t think Duke even could feature as a LOOGY; he likely seeks another shot at starting in 2013 somewhere. Ladson agrees, albeit without the hyperbole of my answer.

Q: What will the Nats do with Yunesky Maya? He appears he found himself while pitching a full season with Triple-A Syracuse.

A: I’d hardly say 11-10 with a 3.88 ERA in AAA is “finding himself.” I’ll admit Yunesky Maya had some decent starts down the stretch, but he also had some awful ones. Just like he did all season. Maya got two shots in 2010 and 2011 to stick in the majors and failed both times. I don’t think he’ll get a third. Look for the Nats to obtain a 4th minor league option on Maya by virtue of his having fewer than 5 pro seasons and him spending 2013, his last of a 4yr $8M contract, as starter insurance in Syracuse again. Ladson states that Maya is rule-5 eligible; Uh, perhaps you need to read up on the purpose of that draft Bill. Its for NON 40-man roster guys.

Q: What’s up with Chris Marrero? Haven’t heard anything about him replacing Adam LaRoche at first base.

A: Another lost season for Chris Marrero, who spent a huge amount of time recovering from an off-season hamstring injury and ended up playing just 37 games in Syracuse after several rehab stops in the lower minors. Zero home runs in AAA for the year. I hate to say it, but Marrero has been passed by on the depth chart for first base, and the team would absolutely look at Michael Morse first and Tyler Moore second to man first base at the major league level before giving Marrero a shot. His positional inflexibility really hurts him, in that he’s not showing the kind of power you need to at the position to get promoted upwards. He’s still young though (born in 1988, he’s only 24). Maybe he’s worth including in trade to another club. Ladson didn’t say much; i’m not sure he really knows what the team plans for Marrero either.

Written by Todd Boss

November 19th, 2012 at 9:02 am

Nats Arbitration Decisions/Non-Tender deadline 2012; my predictions

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Tyler Clippard faces what could be a very interesting arbitration case this offseason. Photo Jonathan Newton/wp.com

Once the dust settled on this year’s Super-2 cutoff (and we discovered that Drew Storen will be arbitration eligible this year while Ryan Perry will not), the Nats will have no less than TEN arbitration-eligible players this off-season, setting the stage for some non-tender decisions, some possible contract extensions, and (hopefully not) some arbitration cases. The Non-tender deadline isn’t until November 30th, but its never too soon to talk about what the team may do.

Here’s the 10 players eligible, a discussion as to what kind of salary they may obtain and whether or not the team will even tender a contract. Note: the salary estimates are from mlbtraderumors Matt Swartz‘s arbitration projections model, with my own thoughts adjusting up or down based on opinion and noted as such). Arbitration salaries essentially try to project the full FA value of a player and then award 40%/60%/80% of that FA salary in each of the three typical arbitration years. For guys getting a 4th, I generally assume they’re getting nearly 100% of their FA value in the last year.

Locks to get a Contract Tender

Ian Desmond. 1st year Eligible/$3.2M estimate: Breakout season in 2012 will earn him plenty of dollars in his first and subsequent arbitration cases. $3.2M equates to nearly a $10M/year full FA value, probably fair for now but could escalate if Desmond continues to provide Gold Glove calibre defense to go along with middle-of-the-order power. It may be slightly early to think about a longer-term contract extension for Desmond; I’d want to wait and see if his 2012 production continues into 2013. Remember; he’s just one year removed from a time when most Nats fans wanted him replaced.
Drew Storen: 1st year Eligible/$1.7M estimate: Storen will get a 4th year of eligiblity by virtue of a quick call-up after getting drafted. $1.7 over 4 arb years equates roughly to a FA value of $7M/year, which seems a bit low for a good closer. I’d guess Storen could get slightly more money, though the team probably argues that his injuries in 2012 prevented him from giving full value, and is probably why he’s estimated at $1.7 instead of nearer to the $4M that Chad Cordero got his first arb year with this team. Rizzo has dangled Storen in trade talks in the past, but seems likely to keep him (at the possible expense of Clippard) for the coming season.
Craig Stammen: 1st year Eligible/$900k estimate: Another super-2 guy who was incredibly valuable to the team this year. I’d guess he’ll get more than 900k despite his role as a middle reliever, since 900k is barely more than the typical veteran minimum (which is roughly $800k, what Mark DeRosa made in 2012). Though, 900k equates to roughly a $3.5M FA value, which seems high for the kind of middle relief right-hander that are a dime a dozen in this league. I’d guess Stammen is the right kind of guy for the team to buy out a couple of arbitration years, much as they did with Sean Burnett a couple years ago. But, being a fungible middle-relief arm, don’t look for anything other than a 2 year deal so the team is protected in case of injury.
Jordan Zimmermann: 2nd year eligible, $4.9M estimate: Another super-2 guy who will get a 4th year of arbitration, this estimate also seems low considering the season that Zimmerman just put in. It also roughly equates his FA value at roughly $10M a year, which I’d guess is also undervaluing Zimmermann. Ask yourself; if he was on the open market, you’d have to think he’s getting more than $10M/year (point of comparison: Kyle Lohse turned down a 13.3M qualifying option and may get 4/60; who would you rather have?)
Tyler Clippard: 2nd year eligible, $4.6M estimate: I see this estimate as high frankly, as being too much of a raise over his 2012 salary of $1.625 despite his being the closer most this year. Clippard said it himself; its better to be the closer, get the saves and get the salary. But $4.6M for a setup guy is way too hefty. If Clippard comes in this high with his demand, look for an ugly arbitration hearing. Honestly, I could see Clippard being a trade candidate and making this arbitration decision someone else’s headache, and the team goes into 2013 with Storen firmly entrenched as the closer with the likes of Mattheus, Garcia and Henry Rodriguez vying for the 8th inning role.
Ross Detwiler: 1st year eligible, $2.2M estimate: This seems right in line with what Jordan Zimmermann got last year ($2.3M in his first eligible year). A successful young starter going through this process the first time.
Roger Bernadina: 1st year eligible, $1.1M estimate: A year ago I thought Bernadina was going to get DFA’d at the end of spring training. Now I wonder if he’s got enough value to be flipped in trade after a standout season for this team as its 4th outfielder. $1.1m is very reasonable for a 4th outfielder with his defensive skills, so don’t be surprised to see Bernadina remain in this role with the team for several years.

Most likely Non-Tender candidates

Jesus Flores: 4th year eligible, $1.2M estimate. Flores represents an interesting test case. Clearly he no longer has a 25-man catcher spot, having fallen behind both Wilson Ramos and Kurt Suzuki on the depth chart. The team also has shown itself to have decent rising catcher depth in the likes of Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano. And Flores really regressed this year both offensively and defensively, so much so that the team had to go out and acquire Suzuki late in the season. So I completely understand those that think that Flores is a non-tender candidate. BUT, you don’t just cut loose valuable commodities, and a healthy catcher who can serve as a backup in the majors is still worth keeping. That being said (as I reported in an earlier post), Flores seems to have achieved 5 service years, meaning that despite his option availability he’d have to agree to be assigned to AAA. Which means his flexibility is completely compromised for this team in 2013. The only remaining reason to sign him would be as insurance in case Suzuki or Ramos get hurt in spring training. If he doesn’t get traded in the next two weeks, look for a non-tender.
Tom Gorzelanny: 4th year eligible, $2.8M estimate. I’m not sure I agree with the MLBtraderumor estimate here, because the likelihood of players getting pay DECREASES in arbitration is pretty slim. Its not like Gorzelanny posted a 6.00 ERA in 2012 after all. Gorzelanny made $3M in 2012, where he predominantly served as our long-man/mop-up guy out of the pen. The question the team has to ask itself is this; is $3M too expensive for the last guy out of the pen? I believe it is, and thus I believe Gorzelanny is destined to get non-tendered. I believe the team likes him but his salary isn’t matching up to his role any longer, so I see him being forced to take a significant salary cut if he wanted to stay here. Were I the Nationals, I’d rather take a shot at a MLB-minimum guy (or even a rule-5 guy) in that mop-up role. The only thing that gives me pause in declaring that the team is ready to cut ties with a lefty reliever is the apparent sky-high cost of lefty relievers on the market; Jeremy Affeldt just signed a 3 year $18M deal to stay with San Francisco. Would this contract convince the Nats management that perhaps Gorzelanny is a player worth hanging on to?
John Lannan: 3rd year eligible, $5M estimate. There are two schools of thought with Lannan in the Natmosphere right now. One group believes that the team will let Edwin Jackson walk, Lannan will naturally take his place as the 5th starter and the team won’t pursue any starter talent in trade or in free agency. The other school of thought (and the one to which I subscribe to) states that Mike Rizzo values power arms and doesn’t rate Lannan at all, that $5M (which I think is a low estimate if he were to actually reach arbitration) is far too expensive for a soft-tossing 5th starter, and that the team will be actively searching for a 5th power arm to replace Jackson in the rotation. I think the team would rather take that $5M+ and use it to pay an acquisition versus continuing to fund Lannan’s sub 100 ERA+ exploits. This opinion ignores the rising cost of lefty starters, and the relative dearth of quality starts on the FA market, so perhaps the Nats hang on to him one more year.

Having so many arbitration eligible guys means that the Nats payroll will take a significant hit. Assuming that the team tenders the above 8 players (including Flores), here’s what the payroll implication will be:

Player	2011 salary	2012 estimate
Desmond	$512,500	$3,200,000
Storen	$498,750	$1,700,000
Stammen	$485,000	$900,000
Zimmermann	$2,300,000	$4,900,000
Clippard	$1,650,000	$4,600,000
Detwiler	$485,000	$2,200,000
Bernadina	$493,500	$1,100,000
Flores	$815,000	$1,200,000
subttl	$7,239,750	$19,800,000

Gorzelanny	$3,000,000	$2,800,000
Lannan	$5,000,000	$5,000,000

The team needs to plan on paying more than twice it did in 2013 for the services of the top 8 arbitration eligible players in 2012. Most of that money can be made up by non-tendering both Gorzelanny and Lannan … except that those players would need to then be replaced on the roster. Still, getting these 8 players for less than $20M a year while the Yankees owe Alex Rodriguez $28M for 2013 alone sort of puts things in context. It is a good problem to have, having to pay your arbitration-eligible stars more and more each year.

Written by Todd Boss

November 15th, 2012 at 8:58 am

Nationals Players’ Service Time and Option Status for 2013

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Jesus Flores achieved 5 full years of service time in 2012, complicating his roster status going forward. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

In the process of opining on some preliminary Nats hot-stove moves this coming off-season, I found myself asking certain service-time/options questions about players on the 40-man roster.

So, I took the time to create a Spreadsheet of all Nats 40-man roster players with Options status for the coming season (well, actually update a version I had of this information from last year). I also tried to update everyone’s service time to what it should stand at at the end of the 2012 season (though honestly some of the service time calculations, especially for someone bounced up and down this year like Corey Brown, can be tricky).

I know that Luke Erickson‘s Nats Big Board has an “Options Status” tab, and I didn’t mean to circumvent the work there; i’m just not sure whether it has been updated for the coming season. The big board Options tab also has some helpful links to decipher some of the options ramifications, especially the tricky 4th option (which will notably come into play for several of our guys very soon, as discussed below).

Nonetheless, if I have the Options statuses and Service time calculations correctly done, there are some interesting roster management moves on the horizon. The below analysis includes a disputed 4th option for Ryan Perry; I’m pretty confident I’m correct in determining his option status but will caveat that opinion (and this whole article) by reminding the reader that I’m not in fact a professional baseball executive and may have a couple of these calculations wrong.

Here’s a full list of our current 36 40-man players (this is where we stand as of today, post FA declarations of our seven free agents plus the reverting of our former three 60-day DL guys to the 40-man roster). I’ve got these players divided into four categories, with some discussion after each:

Category 1: Vets who can refuse demotion (5 or more years of service)

Players in this category and their service time at the end of 2012:

Name	Svc Time	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	# Ops Left
Gorzelanny, Tom	5.16	Sept 2005	2006, 2008, 2009	0
Flores, Jesus	5.079	Dec 2006	2008, 2011	1
Suzuki, Kurt	5.113	Jun 2007	none	3
Tracy, Chad	7.000	Nov 2004?	?	?
Zimmerman, Ryan	7.032	Sep 2005	none	3
Morse, Michael	5.114	Nov 2004	2005, 2006, 2007	0
Werth, Jayson	9.102	Nov 2002?	?	?

Discussion: Most of the guys on this list are no-brainer core pieces of the team in 2013 and beyond, but two names in particular raise interesting questions. First Tom Gorzelanny has now achieved enough MLB time so that he cannot be sent down without his permission, but that was largely irrelevant based on his lack of options anyway. He remains a non-tender candidate because of his expected raise from his 2012 $3M salary given his role as long-man/mop-up guy for the team (well, that is unless you’ve seen the price of left-handed relief on the FA market this off-season … maybe he’s NOT a non-tender candidate). The bigger surprise on this list is Jesus Flores, who I believe achieved his 5th full service year in 2012 and now (despite having a minor league option left) can refuse an assignment to AAA. This represents an interesting decision for the team, who clearly has Suzuki and Ramos as its #1/#2 catchers. Most think he’s also a clear non-tender candidate for 2013, but I tend to think that he’s a valuable commodity worth tendering a contract. Despite his poor batting in 2012 (slash line of .213/.248/.329) there is a market for backup catchers in this league, especially ones that once showed the hitting promise that Flores has (a slash line of .301/.371/.505 in the early part of 2009 prior to his injuries). Maybe this service time issue becomes the straw that breaks the camel’s back of his tendering decision; if we tender him, we’ll immediately have to trade him because he’ll likely refuse an assignment and be declared a free agent if he doesn’t make the 2013 team. Perhaps the team cuts bait on him before having their hand forced.

Category 2: Players with Options but who are entrenched on the 25-man roster for 2013

Name	Svc Time	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	# Ops Left
Gonzalez, Gio	3.162	Aug 2008	2009	2
Mattheus, Ryan	1.111	June 2011	none	3
Storen, Drew	2.140	May 2010	none	3
Strasburg, Stephen	2.118	Aug 2009	2010	2
Zimmermann, Jordan	3.154	Apr 2009	2010	2
Ramos, Wilson	2.047	Nov 2008	2009, 2010	1
Desmond, Ian	3.027	Nov 2008	2009	2
Espinosa, Danny	2.033	Sep 2010	none	3
Lombardozzi, Steve	1.023	Sep 2011	none	3
Harper, Bryce	0.152	Aug 2010	2011, 2012	1
Moore, Tyler	0.113	Nov 2011	2012	2

Discussion; the likelihood of seeing any of these guys optioned to the minors in 2013 seems slim; mostly they are starters and key players for the team going forward. That being said, John Lannan‘s surprise demotion in 2010 while he struggled was enabled by his options availability, and a struggling player like Moore or Lombardozzi could be sent down to make room if need be.

Category 3: Players whose Options almost guaranteed to be used in 2013

Name	Svc Time	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	# Ops Left
Kimball, Cole	0.138	Nov 2010	2011, 2012	1
Maya, Yunesky	0.070	July 2010	2010, 2011, 2012	1?
Perry, Ryan	2.142	Apr 2009	2009, 2011, 2012	1?
Purke, Matthew	0.000	Aug 2011	2012	2
Leon, Sandy	0.096	May 2012	2012	3
Solano, Jhonatan	0.092	Nov 2011	2012	2
Marrero, Chris	0.033	Nov 2010	2011, 2012	1
Rendon, Anthony	0.000	Aug 2011	2012	2
Perez, Eury	0.030	Nov 2011	2012	2

Discussion; This list is where some of the 4th option availability comes into play. First Yunesky Maya has already used 3 options but clearly isn’t in the plans of the team for 2013 (the final year of his 4yr/$8M wasted contract). But, if I read the options rules correctly his lack of achieving 5 professional seasons will give him a 4th option, which is likely to be used for 2013. The same goes with Ryan Perry, who was drafted in 2008 but made the Tiger’s MLB roster in 2009, nearly out of Spring Training, meaning he’s just finishing his 4th professional season. This means (as was pointed out by a reader a few posts ago) he’s eligible for a 4th option, which is likely to be used as Perry continues to remake himself as a starter. (Note: the 4th option validity for Perry has been questioned here and there and revolves around 2010, when I don’t believe he was optioned). I see him being in the AAA rotation and serving as injury insurance for the MLB rotation. Marrero and Kimball are both in the same boat; they both missed all (or most) of 2012, burning an option in the process, and unless the organization makes the decision to designate them to make room on the 40-man they will each burn their last minor league option in 2013. The rest of these players are working their way up the minor league system, or in the case of Matthew Purke, hopefully working their way back into 100% health.

Category 4: Players with Options available, jeopardizing their 25-man status in 2013

Name	Svc Time	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	# Ops Left
Christian Garcia	0.027	Sep 2012	none	3
Lannan, John	4.045	July 2007	2010, 2012	1
Stammen, Craig	2.160	May 2009	2009, 2011	1
Brown, Corey	0.059	Nov 2010	2011, 2012	1

Discussion: I probably should have put Stammen into the 2nd category of players, based on his breakout 2012 performance. Lannan is a likely non-tender after getting the surprising option to Syracuse in 2012 and demanding a trade; however if he’s offered arbitration he can have the same thing happen to him again in 2013, serving as a multi-millionare AAA starter/insurance policy. The question is whether or not the team wants to spend money in that fashion. It remains to be seen what the team does with Garcia; numerous reports talk of him converting to a starter. If so, his options availability would allow the team to send him to AAA to hone his craft were he to not be ready for a rotation spot out of spring training. Lastly Brown seems stuck in 4-A status right now, having cleaned up in AAA but struggled at the MLB level. Perhaps he’s also a “guarantee” to be optioned in 2013 and belonging in the 3rd category; I put him here only because the Nats outfield situation remains in so much flux. If LaRoche walks, Morse likely moves to first, Moore likely starts in left (absent another FA outfielder signing or other acquisition), Bernadina continues as the 4th outfielder and the team may possibly need a 5th outfielder candidate. Brown is a lefty though, and the team has already invested in a lefty bench bat in Chad Tracy, so perhaps this works against him. There’s so much yet to be decided though, its hard to guess how it will shake out.

Category 5: Players with no options left

Name	Svc Time	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	# Ops Left
Clippard, Tyler	3.148	May 2007	2007, 2008, 2009	0
Detwiler, Ross	3.002	Sept 2007	2008, 2009, 2011	0
Rodriguez, Henry	2.114	Nov 2007	2008, 2009, 2010	0
Rivero, Carlos	0.000	Nov 2009	2010, 2011, 2012	0
Bernadina, Roger	3.146	Oct 2007	2008, 2009, 2011	0

Discussion: The main player that has a worry here is Carlos Rivero, claimed off waivers from Philadelphia and who burned his last option in 2012 without even getting a Sept 1 call up. He had a decent season in AAA (.303/.347/.435) but seems to be without a position (he played 3rd primarily in AAA and doesn’t seem to have another position). I’m guessing he’s DFA’d this off-season and the team attempts to re-sign him to a minor league contract. Henry Rodriguez‘s lack of options has resulted in some dubious DL-trips several times for this team, as he clearly could use some minor league time to fix his Jeckyl-and-Hyde performances. But he can’t be optioned, so in some ways the team is stuck. Honestly, I think its just a matter of time before they run out of patience and DFA him as well.

Thoughts? Corrections? Any and all feedback is welcome.

Written by Todd Boss

November 14th, 2012 at 9:52 am

September callups and the pending Nats Roster crunch

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Cole Kimball (remember him?) could be a victim of a roster crunch this off-season. Photo Rob Carr/Getty Images via zimbio.com

I took this discussion out of the comments section of the Giolito post in August and made it a separate discussion item, since the situation only got more “dire” with the 9/3/12 call-ups of both Christian Garcia and Zach Duke.

Before getting into the below analysis, let me say this: I’m absolutely supported all of the 40-man additions or the 9/1 call-ups; they were all required, important moves and, especially with the early-season catcher crunch, were vital to ensuring the continued success of the team through the September push. Adding these two latest arms to a well-used bullpen, plus the 9/1/12 call-ups of of eventual 5th starter John Lannan, catcher depth in Sandy Leon and defensive replacement/pinch runner Eury Perez signal that this team used every avenue in its arsenal to win down the stretch and secure not only a playoff entry, but the #1 seed.

Garcia and Duke were new 40-man additions; to make room at the time the club put Henry Rodriguez on the 60-day dl (apropos since he just had season-ending elbow surgery). The 40-man roster was filled to a full 40 active players, with an additional three on 60-day DL (Kimball and Ramos joining H-Rod on the 60-day list).

So, why am I worried about a future 40-man roster crunch? Because with all these additions, we’re going to have to make some tough choices once it comes time to protect guys from the rule-5 draft. Some have said that the expected Free Agents and Non-Tenders will immediately ease the roster crunch, but I’d counter that these players will have to immediately be filled through free-agency and aren’t going to offer the relief one may expect.

Lets do some analysis for the 43 guys (40 on 40-man plus 3 60-day DL) we’re talking about. Here’s how these 43 guys are categorized in terms of contract status for next year:

Seven (7) guys under contract for next year. Werth, Zimmerman, Morse, Gio Gonzalez, Maya, Tracy, Suzuki.
Eighteen (18) guys who are pre-arbitration; Strasburg, Rendon, Purke, Harper, Espinosa, Ramos, Henry Rodriguez, Lombardozzi, Marrero, Mattheus, Kimball, Moore, Perez, Rivero, Solano, Garcia, Leon, Brown. Some of these are non-tender candidates; we’ll get to them below.
Nine (9) guys who are arbitration-eligible but who are (in my opinion) not in Non-Tender jeopardy: Zimmermann, Clippard, Flores, Desmond, Storen, Bernadina, Detwiler, Stammen, Perry. Both Perry and Storen may or may not actually hit Arbitration status per Cots, but the logic still stands that they’d be tied to the team regardless. Are any of these guys non-tender candidates? See below. [Editor’s Note] we now know that Storen DID hit super-2 status, while Perry missed out on arbitration for the year. Most of this post was written prior to this knowledge.
Four (4) pure FAs that immediately come off books: Mike Gonzalez, Jackson, Wang, DeRosa.
Two (2) more guys with mutual options that, as it turned out, declined their side and became free agents anway (LaRoche and Burnett).
Three (3) easy Non-tender guesses: I think the team non-tenders Gorzelanny, Lannan and Duke (but looks to bring Gorzelanny back as a long-man). There are other possible non-tenders on this roster; we’ll talk about them later on.

So, on the day the FA’s clear and the 60-day guys get put back on the 40-man we’ll be at 43-6 FAs = 37 players. So, assuming both 43-6 FAs=37 to start, perhaps down to 34 at the non-tender deadline. That leaves 6 spots opened up … but if my scenario plays out as described above with 6 FAs and 3 non tenders, that includes no less than FIVE of our primary 25-man roster all season. Which means most likely we’ll be active in the FA market looking for replacements for those five guys. First example: Who replaces Edwin Jackson? The next guys in line are Lannan and Wang; both likely gone. After that is perhaps Perry or Maya, both on 40-man but so far both proven not to be able to get out MLB hitters. So we’re going to be looking for another starter. Same goes with replacing Burnett and Gonzalez as lefties out of the pen, and replacing DeRosa as mlb-veteran utility infielder.

My point is that, yeah we have a lot of guys getting cut but we can’t just leave those spots open on the 40-man; we’ll need to immediately fill them with MLB deals in free agency. So we go from 34 open spots probably almost immediately to 38 or 39 with these eventual FA replacement signings…. and boom, you have your roster crunch when it comes to rule5.

I have a draft version of the 2012 rule 5 pre-draft recommendations and it could get ugly, but to do some quick analysis here’s the Draft Tracker google xls: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmkEIm1TLiXQdGhVRjRfNW81SG8xRlROQ1ZxZzNfbUE&hl=en#gid=0. Yellow shaded cells are 2012 R5 eligible but don’t forget 2011 R5 guys who have stepped up and may need protecting. At first glance in the conversation to be protected has to include: Kobernus, Rosenbaum, Karns, Hood, and Demny. I’m not saying they all need to be protected, but some of them may.

My point is this; if the team wants to protect more than 1-2 guys, they’re looking at a one-for-one replacement on the 40-man roster. Maybe they do DFA Marrero and Kimball, but they probably don’t want to. Marrero is only 24. Kimball was relatively successful before going down with shoulder surgery and is the kind of reliever that Rizzo loves.

This is the essence of the “roster crunch” that this team faces this off-season.

Written by Todd Boss

November 2nd, 2012 at 11:11 am

Posted in Nats in General,Rule-5

Tagged with chien-ming wang, christian garcia, cole kimball, edwin jackson, eury perez, henry rodriguez, john lannan, lucas giolito, mark derosa, michael gonzalez, ryan perry, sandy leon, sean burnett, wilson ramos, yunesky maya, zach duke

Ladson’s Inbox: 10/22/12 edition

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LaRoche's status with the team will dictate a number of cascading roster moves. Photo Rob Carr/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com

I havn’t seen mlb.com beat reporter Bill Ladson do an inbox response since February. So I was excited to see one pop in this past Monday, 10/22/12. As a reminder, I write my response before reading his, and sometimes edit questions for clarity.

Q: What are the Nationals’ plans for Tyler Moore? He is a power hitter who deserves to play every day. If Adam LaRoche returns next year, where does Moore fit in?

A: Tyler Moore indeed had excellent numbers in limited action, getting called up at the end of April to cover for a dearth of outfielders on the Nats roster. His slash line was .263/.327/.513 for an OPS+ of 124 with 10 homers in 156 Abs. Thats a homer ever 15.6 ABs and correlates to nearly a 40 homer pace for a full season of roughly 600 at-bats. That is of course if you believe in what we saw in 2012 versus the continued lack of respect for Moore from the scouting pundits (who think his minor league power numbers were more a function of age than talent, and who continued to think that Moore had too many holes in his swing to be an impact MLB player).

Unfortunately though for Moore, if Adam LaRoche is re-signed there may not be an immediate place for Moore in the lineup. LaRoche can only play 1B, Michael Morse is signed through 2013 and has become a club and fan favorite in LF. Those are basically the only two positions Moore can play.

I think the better question here is, “Will the Nats extend Adam LaRoche?” Because that’s the question that drives several other roster moves for 2013. If LaRoche comes back and the team favors giving Moore more playing time, maybe they package Morse in trade. Perhaps Moore sits and waits for another injury to give him playing time; LaRoche was incredibly healthy in 2012 and could regress for 2013. Or, perhaps LaRoche (as basically the leading 1B power hitter on the FA market) will get a 3-4 year deal (likely) and the Nats won’t over-pay for his decline years, will install Moore at first and keep Morse in left. Honestly, I think this last scenario is what plays out, and we’ll see Moore as your starting first baseman in 2013.

Ladson basically echos exactly what I say above. Glad we’re on the same page.

Q: Do you think the Nationals will go after Michael Bourn this offseason?

A: No no no! As I opined on September 13th, after seeing yet another Jim Bowden article intoning last off-season’s mantra of “the Nats need a center fielder,” the Nats HAVE a center fielder, and a darn good one, in Bryce Harper. Harper finished the season with the 4th best UZR/150 for any CF with 500+ innings, even better than the vaunted defensive wizard Mike Trout. It took about 5 games for his arm to be respected league wide, and he’s only 19 and will only get better. Why would we possible move Harper off CF in the next 4-5 years? Yes, eventually we expect a bulked up power hitting Harper to move to a corner spot, but not at age 20. Besides, if Harper moves off CF … who makes way in left or right? Do you move Jayson Werth to left field? If so, then what happens to Michael Morse? Do you move him? Harper’s defensive value is wasted in right field. Werth’s defensive value (while inarguably slipping) is also wasted in left field, where you can “hide” a poor defensive player who is plus-plus power.

*sigh* I wish this rumor would go away. I’m pretty sure the Yankees never said to Mickey Mantle at age 19, “Hey Mick! We like you in center but we to move you to a corner outfielder so we can sign a sub-average hitter to lead-off and play in your position.” Of course not, so why would the Nats do so?

Unfortunately Ladson perpetuates the ridiculous myth himself and says he thinks the team goes after Bourn and puts Harper in LF. Just ridiculous.

Q: Any news on Cole Kimball’s recovery? Will we see him in a Nats uniform in 2013?

A: Shoulder injuries in power pitchers are never an easy recovery. That’s why we never really saw Kimball in the summer and why he’s currently in the AFL getting some extra time on the hill. As of this writing he only has 3 2/3 innings, so not much to go by. We are seeing some reports that he looks decent. 2013 prognosis? He faces an uphill battle to make the bullpen; there’s several right handers that are now clearly ahead of him on the depth chart. Storen, Clippard, and Stammen are locks (if not traded). Rodriguez has no options. Mattheus has pitched his way onto this team. That’s your 5 righties out of the pen (Davey Johnson likes 2 lefties). And we havn’t even talked about Christain Garcia, who pitched well enough to make the post season roster. So the answer may be that Kimball starts in AAA and waits for an opportunity. Ladson says he thinks Kimball can make the 2013 bullpen. How exactly? Who is he going to be ahead of? Not much provided in the way of deep analysis, Bill.

Q: Do you think there is any chance the Nationals bring up Corey Brown to play center and bat second?

A: No. Brown looks to me like the definition of a 4-A guy, and will be stashed in AAA as outfield depth until further notice. Batting second? Really? We’re currently batting Werth at leadoff despite his having middle-of-the-order power. What makes anyone think Brown deserves to bat anywhere in this lineup, let alone ahead of the power guys? And, if Brown makes the 25-man roster which outfielder does he replace? Certainly not the starters in Morse, Harper and Werth. Certainly not Roger Bernadina, who more than earned his stay. And certainly not above Moore. Ladson agrees.

Q: What do you think about the addition of Kurt Suzuki to the roster?

A: Somewhat of a panic/reactionary move at the time, but it has worked out great for both sides. Jesus Flores wasn’t stopping the one-way street for opposing base-runners, and we needed more of a plus-defensive guy behind the plate. Flores did himself no favors batting .213 either. Suzuki immediately upped his batting stroke too, batting .267 here after hitting just .218 in Oakland in 2012. Clearly Suzuki and Wilson Ramos are your two catchers heading into 2013. What do we do with Flores? Do we dare non-tender him and give him away? Do we tender him and try to trade him? I’d hope for the latter, thinking that even a .213 hitting catcher has value in this league. I hate to say it, but Ramos can’t stay on the field and we needed the insurance. Ladson agrees, but doesn’t mention Flores’ fate.

Q: The Shark, aka Roger Bernadina, had a career year and will probably get a raise this offseason. Do you think the Nats are going to try to move him, or can we expect to see The Shark with the team next year?

A: Great question. Do we sell-high on Bernadina and make-do with a 4th outfielder like Corey Brown or Eury Perez in 2013? We could, if it brought us back something worth having. We do have some rising quality OF depth that would replace Bernadina (Brian Goodwin comes to mind, perhaps even Anthony Rendon if he hits his way to the majors in 2013). Ladson thinks Bernadina will be back. I have no problem with that; he hit great this year, knew his role and is fantastic defensively.

Q: Do you think Davey Johnson is the best manager in Nationals/Expos history? Felipe Alou is tough to beat, but Davey has my vote on this one.

A: Why not Jim Fanning? He led the franchise to its only prior post-season appearance. I dunno; what exactly makes a “good” manager? I think Johnson has absolutely done better with this team than anyone thought, so yeah that makes him a great manager (and my favorite for winning NL Manager of the Year). Best ever for the franchise? Why do people think Felipe Alou was so great? His last three Expos teams each lost 90 or more games. Who can really talk intelligently about how well Buck Rodgers mangaged the team in the mid 1980s? The team improved 19 wins from 1978 to 1979 under Dick Williams. Those are good managers too. Ladson thinks Johnson is the best ever but says Alou was great. I don’t get it.

Written by Todd Boss

October 24th, 2012 at 11:27 am

Nats Franchise Trade history; biggest, best, worst

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Was getting Gonzalez the "biggest" trade the franchise has ever made? Photo Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images via nydailynews.com

In response to a topic that came up in the comments section, I’ll do a 3-part series reviewing the biggest/best/worst moves by the franchise since arriving here in Washington. We’ll differentiate between Jim Bowden and Mike Rizzo moves as we go through. We’ll talk about trades, then draft picks, then FA signings.

First up: Trades.

The Nats have made dozens of trades since 2005, and by my records have traded with every team in the league save for three: Baltimore, Cleveland and the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, the franchise has not done business with Baltimore in any capacity since the year 2000, a testament perhaps to the difficulties of dealing with Peter Angelos even before the team moved to Washington. Now post-relocation, the conventional wisdom is that the two teams would never do business on the off-chance that one team ended up “winning” a trade with the other.

I’ll divide this post into into 3 sections: the “biggest” deal (not the most players, but the biggest impact/most news worthy), the “best” deal(s) and the “worst” deals. For Rizzo, we’ll add a 4th category for “Too Early to Tell,” since the big off-season trade of last season probably won’t shake it self out for a few more years.

Jim Bowden Tenure: Nov 2004 – Mar 2009

Biggest Trades

2005: Soriano deal
2006: Kearns/Lopez deal
2007: Milledge deal
2008: Willingham/Olsen deal

The Alfonso Soriano move made all sorts of news; he wouldn’t move to LF, threatened not to play at all, then ended up putting in a 40/40 season in a pitcher’s ballpark and then resulted a host of national news as the team debated whether to trade him, re-sign him or let him go. Bowden held firm on his demands in the trade market, never traded him and landed two compensatory draft picks (which the Nats turned into Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Smoker).

The Kearns/Lopez deal, in the end, was more about moving deck chairs than making progress for either team. Bowden was obsessed with players that he knew from his Cincinnati days, and showed a proclivity to trade for or acquire them throughout his tenure here, and this deal was just the biggest example. The only player in the deal who still remains with his original team is Bill Bray, and most of the players in the deal have become large disappointments for their careers or are out of baseball. The Reds accused Bowden publically of selling them damaged goods (Gary Majewski got injured about 5 minutes after the trade was completed) and Kearns/Lopez never really lived up to anything close to their potential.

We’ll talk about the other two deals below.

Best Trades

2007: Getting Tyler Clippard
2009: Getting Michael Morse
2008: Getting Willingham/Olsen

Bowden gets major credit for obtaining two core members of the current Nationals squad for almost nothing. He obtained Tyler Clippard from the Yankees for Jonathan Albaladejo in a like-for-like trade of under-performing minor league relievers. Of course we all know what’s happeend since; Clippard has become a super-star setup man, the 2011 league leader in holds. Getting Michael Morse in return for sending the feeble Ryan Langerhans to Seattle in what most thought was a mercy trade at the time (i.e., trying to send good-guy Langerhans to a team that would actually play him) seems like one of the steals of the decade. Nobody thought Morse had a fraction of the potential he’s now shown to have.

I include getting Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen as a win based on who we gave up: PJ Dean, Emilio Bonifacio and Jake Smolinski. I’ve always had a soft spot for Willingham and thought his offense potential was the key to this deal; we got two major leaguers for two dead-end minor leaguers plus a backup infielder. Luckily for the Nats, Florida was always ready to give up arbitration candidates to save a buck.

Worst Trades

2007: Milledge deal

Honestly, I had a hard time really saying that I thought one of Bowden’s trades was egregiously bad. Most of his deals (outside the deals mentioned above as biggest or best) were minor leaguer swaps or dumping veterans at the trade deadline. Even the acquisition of Elijah Dukes wasn’t really that “bad” based on who we gave up (Glenn Gibson, who was released a couple years later by Tampa Bay and ended up back with us anyway).

However, the acquisition of Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider might be the one trade that I’d most quibble with. Bowden showed his obsession with “toolsy” and “potential” players in this deal, acquiring the malcontent Milledge and giving the Mets two immediate starters. At the time I certainly defended the deal; neither Church or Schneider were slated to be starters for the 2008 Nats so you could argue that we got a plus prospect for two backups. I know I certainly argued that point. Church seemed to be a brooding platoon outfielder who wouldn’t be happy unless he was starting and Schneider had lost his starting spot to Jesus Flores and was a relatively weak hitter.

As it has worked out Church was a very productive player for New York, Flores got hurt and left the team in a very serious catcher-dearth position, and Milledge turned out to be not nearly the talent that we thought we were getting. By the time we flipped him to Pittsburgh in 2009 he was barely hitting his weight in AAA and was completely out of the picture for this team.

Mike Rizzo Tenure: Mar 2009 – present

Biggest Trades

2011: Gio Gonzalez deal
2009: Morgan/Burnett deal
2010: Ramos for Capps deal
2011: Henry Rodriguez/Willingham deal
2011: Gorzelanny deal

You have to hand it to Mike Rizzo; he’s not been afraid to make deals. In his 3 year tenure he’s made 5 significant deals that have vastly changed the way this team is constructed. Two of those deals (Morgan/Burnett and the Willingham deals) were mostly about cleaning up the roster to get it more in his image of pro-clubhouse guys and pro-defense. Trading away Milledge and Willingham succeeded in moving the team towards these goals. The Gorzelanny and Gonzalez trades were about acquiring power arms to shore up the rotation, another tenant of Rizzo-constructed teams.

Best Trades

2010: getting Wilson Ramos

Clearly Rizzo’s best move was stealing Wilson Ramos for a closer (Matt Capps) that we had ample candidates for internally. The Twins panicked post-Joe Nathan injury and overloaded their bullpen with closer candidates. Meanwhile Rizzo turned an astute FA signing (a minor league signing that turned into an All Star) into an even more astute trade by getting a nearly MLB-ready catcher in return for a guy who the team wouldn’t be re-signing anyway. Great move.

Worst Trades

2011: Gomes for Rhinehart/Manno
2009: Bruney for ptbnl (eventually rule5 top pick Jamie Hoffman)

Most readers here loved Christopher Manno and the promise he was showing in A-ball. Most were also aghast to see Manno go the other way to Cincinnati for a 4th outfielder Jonny Gomes. At the time, the argument was that Davey Johnson wanted a bat off the bench and that the team needed some OF depth. What really happened was that Gomes hit his way out of his type-B arbitration status and played so poorly the 2nd half of 2011 that the team couldn’t dare offer him arbitration to get a compensatory draft pick. So we traded two decent prospects for a half season of awful production. Not a good move.

Even worse, trading anything to acquire Brian Bruney. The team acquired Bruney, promptly argued against him and beat him in arbitration, and then (unsurprisingly) Bruney vastly underperformed until being flat out released a few months into the 2010 season. For me this is a lesson in what not to do with your arbitration eligible players. It wasn’t so much what we gave up (the first pick in the rule-5 draft *could* have been used to acquire someone of value), it was what we got in return.

Too Early to Tell Trades

2011: Gio Gonzalez deal

Pro-prospect pundits (anyone at Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc) will already tell you that the Nats vastly overpaid for Gio Gonzalez. That’s because they value the potential of prospects more than the proven commodity of the major league player. But the fact is this; you KNOW what you’re getting in Gonzalez but you have no idea how a low-A prospect will play out. The Nats rolled the dice that AJ Cole isn’t going to turn into the next incarnation of Justin Verlander and that Brad Peacock‘s promise will peak as a middle reliever. The only way to tell how this trade turns out is to track the progress of those players we gave up versus what Gonzalez does for this team over the next 3-4 years.

Thoughts? Any trades out there that stick in your minds that you thought should be mentioned?

Written by Todd Boss

March 28th, 2012 at 6:52 pm

Ask Boswell 3/5/12

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Here’s Tom Boswell‘s weekly Monday chat from 3/5/12. Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them. While lots of questions pertained to the recent Gregg Williams “bounty” issues and whether or not the Redskins partook during his time here, the starting of spring training has got Nats fans pretty excited.

As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his.

Q: What do you think the Nats w/l record will be? Can they win 90 games?

A: For a team that won 80 last year (though their pythagorean W/L record was slightly worse), I don’t think its a stretch to assume they can improve another 10 games. Mark Zuckerman did a nice little WAR analysis and showed that full seasons from Zimmerman, LaRoche and Strasburg, along with the new additions of Gonzalez and Jackson *should* give the team at least another 10 wins, perhaps a bit more. That’s assuming basically that everyone else performs at the same levels they did last year, and it assumes that the WAR stat directly translates to wins on the field. In reality, you have to plan for some people to step up while others step back. Can we assume that Morse will hit 30 homers again? Its a tough one to assume; he could break a leg and suddenly our offense is in tatters.

That’s why I’ve been a bit more conservative, predicting 8 more wins for this team and have them at 88-74 with this squad. If the team is in the WC hunt, and they augment the offense, or if Harper comes up and produces … suddenly that’s a 90-91 win team. Boswell didn’t really answer this question, just went off on Strasburg tangents.

Q: Who is your opening day starter?

A: barring injury it has to be Strasburg. I think your initial 5-man rotation goes like this, in this order: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson and Wang. This gives you a decent righty-lefty matchup at the top. Perhaps you replace Wang with Lannan and have Jackson go out 5th to get a true R-L-R-L-R rotation. Or perhaps Davey Johnson doesn’t care about lefty/righty matchups. I’m more interested to see who the home opener starter is, since it happens 7 games into the season. Right now it looks to be Gonzalez, which would be great, but early season rain-outs can greatly affect rotation orders. Boswell says Strasburg but had a good caveat; if its 30 degrees and snowing in Chicago on opening day Strasburg probably won’t go.

Q: Where is this team’s Lenny Dykstra-esque scrappy mean streak player?

A: Honestly, the Mets-to-Nats comparisons may not ever bee 100%. I don’t see a Dykstra type on this roster. Mostly because this roster still does not have a center fielder/lead off type, which is exactly what Dykstra was. Boswell says that Werth may still fill this role.

Q: Why didn’t the team keep Bixler and Nix?

A: Bixler is a good question; for reasons unknown the team designated him for assignment in the off-season while still possessing 40-man room (inexplicably; they did this a number of times, losing Kimball at one point but also losing two decent players in the Rule 5 draft). Nix they probably thought was replaceable on the FA market … or at least obtainable for cheap. There does always seem to be a number of halfway decent corner outfielders on the market who are available for less than what Nix got. Boswell says Nix’s 2yr contract was the problem … the Nats want flexibility for 2014. No mention of Bixler.

Q: If Tyler Clippard is our “MVP,” why isn’t he being paid more?

A: Two reasons; clearly the questioner doesn’t understand the whole arbitration process. Just because Clippard is our best pitches doesn’t equate to him being the highest paid player. Veterans always make more than pre-arb guys; don’t forget the players belong to a Union, and Union members reward longevitiy. Secondly; Clippard unfortunately is a commodity player; he’s a non-closer reliever who doesn’t rack up saves and thus won’t ever be compensated like a Jonathan Papelbon or a Mariano Rivera, despite his value to the team. Its an unfair world in some respects, and I just hope that the Nats do him right and keep paying him while he’s productive for the team. Boswell mirrors my two thoughts but then also says that relievers are starting to become aware of newer stats like WPA that value Clippard highly (1st in the NL last year, above big name starters like Roy Halladay).

Q: What are your thoughts on the extra wild card?

A: Baseball purists may whine and complain, but the modern professional sports scene in this country, fortunately or unfortunately, places a ton of emphasis on playoffs versus regular season accomplishment. Even with these two additional WC teams, Baseball still has the fewest of its teams reaching the regular season of any of the four major sports. And, in a sport where payroll disparities may not determine the World Series victor every year they clearly help predict the playoff contendors (Yankees: one missed playoff appearance since 1994), having more teams in competition for the playoffs is good for the sport. Frankly I’d like to see Baseball go to a 32-team/8-division structure similar to the NFL and adopt the NFL’s exact playoff structure. The problem there is finding two more markets without cannibalizing the NY or LA market. Boswell says “time will tell,” but also admits that he hated the first WC round initially but likes it now. He also points out something I hadn’t thought of; the importance of your #3 starter with a new round of playoffs.

Q: Should the team just skip Strasburg’s start every few times to extend his 160IP limit until the end of the season?

A: It isn’t a bad idea; Zimmermann skipped one start and hit his 160IPs at roughly September 1st. So skipping a few more starts for Strasburg would put him well into September. But I don’t think he’ll be served well by jacking around his days rest. Starters depend on getting into routines in order to pitch their best. Honestly I think this situation may very well play it self out naturally; even in 2010 Strasburg had two separate DL stints; if he spends 30 days or so on the DL at various times we’ll get a full season out of him. Boswell agrees with me on the not-skipping-a-start theory.

Q: How secure is Ramos as the #1 catcher?

A: I’d say he’s pretty secure. Flores may have had a good winter, but winter leagues aren’t exactly MLB quality. Flores’ injury history has more or less derailed his career, and that’s unfortunate. The team has found a solid #1 in Ramos and will stick with him, with Flores getting his typical 1 or 2 starts a week. The inclusion of Derek Norris in the Gonzalez package also spoke volumes about where this team thinks it is in terms of catcher depth, as does the 40-man addition of Maldonado, a journeyman catcher who now benefits from a distinct lack of upper-level minor league catcher depth. Look for the team to make catcher a focus in the 2012 draft to start back up the catcher pipeline. In the mean time, I doubt Flores will be trade bait even if he performs amazingly well, at least until we find another catcher in the wings. Boswell says Ramos is as #1 as any #1 can be.

Q: Who are the best catchers ever?

A: For a combination of defense, calling games, arm strength as well as offense, i’d go with Johnny Bench. But you also have to throw in Ivan Rodriguez in his prime. Mike Piazza was notoriously bad defensively. Jorge Posada was subpar defensively in his later years but was a monster bat. I’d include other names from the past few decades like Carlton Fisk. Before Fisk and Bench, there was a dearth of HoF inductees from the catcher position for some 30 years, to Yogi Berra who is probably the benchmark for all-around catchers (with Bench). Boswell says Bench as well, but mentions Varitek with Posada. Interesting.

Q: What is the team going to do with Ian Desmond?

A: I’d guess that 2012 is the make it or break it year for Desmond. If he’s hitting .220 at the all-star break without significant value proven at the SS position, the team may make a change. Move Espinosa to SS, install DeRosa as starting 2B, look to move Desmond and perhaps make Lombardozzi the utility guy. I also find it very interesting that Anthony Rendon is getting reps at both 2B and SS; if that kind of hitter can slot in at short stop on even an as-needed basis he could be even more of a dangerous prospect than he already is. Boswell agrees; this is a big year for Desmond.

Q: If catcher is so important, why did we move Bryce Harper away from the position?

A: one word: longevity. Yeah he was a catcher growing up but catchers get the crap beat out of them, have constant injury concerns, and the wear and tear of catching affects their hitting. With such a bat potential, he needs to be on the field and playing 162 games. That being said, I was slightly surprised that he didn’t at least try to stick at C for at least a little bit of his career … but understand the reasoning stated. Boswell said the same things I said, but added that scouts didn’t really think he was a natural catcher anyway, so he got moved to the OF quickly.

Q: What would MLB’s response be to the same “bounty” scandal going on in the NFL?

A: Hard one; its not like purposeful bean-balls without context are common in the MLB. And the game is just too random to purposely try to spike someone, or slide into them on purpose, or to purposely hit a catcher. These plays are so bang-bang and so naturally occurring to baseball players who have played all their lives that they’re hard to script. If it was found out to be happening? Long suspensions. Boswell thinks such a situation would be lifetime bans, if proven.

Q: Strasburg has never pitched more than 7 innings, at any level, ever. Is this a concern?

A: I have a hard time believing this, but won’t challenge the questioner since I’m not entirely in a position to go searching through the guy’s college career. Is it a concern? eh. Its modern baseball. No more 150 pitch games, no more 38 start seasons. Little leaguers have pitch count/innings limits, high school teams only play twice a week. College rotations you go once a week. I’d only be concerned if he showed any inclination of slowing down later in games, which he doesn’t. Boswell isn’t concerned.

Written by Todd Boss

March 7th, 2012 at 2:39 pm

Nats Off-season News Items Wrap-up 2/11/12 edition

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Mr. Jackson Comes to Washington. Photo unknown via sportsbank.com

This is your semi-weekly/periodic wrap-up of Nats and other baseball news that caught my eye. I try to publish this about weekly or if it gets up to about 1500 words, so that it’s not to voluminous.

Apologies for the delay on this; life sometimes intervenes into blogging :-). Most of this news is at least a week old.

Nationals In General

John Lannan presses his luck, goes to arbitration with the team and “loses,” meaning he’ll only get $5M in 2012 instead of the $5.7M he was seeking. I thought $5M was rich frankly; using my 40/60/80% theory on arbitration salaries (as in, your first year arbitration salary is roughly 40% of your open market free agent value, 2nd year 60% and so on…) I thought Lannan’s salary would be roughly $4.8M (equating to an $8M salary on the open market). Still, he nearly doubles his 2011 salary of $2.75M despite having a sub .500 record (yes I know that’s relatively meaning less but still).
In the out of nowhere department, Edwin Jackson signs with the Nats. 1yr, $11M (with $2M deferred to 2013). Scott Boras finds employment for another client in Washington DC. Mike Rizzo immediately had to comment on the future of John Lannan, who clearly seems like the odd-man out despite being guaranteed a $5M salary in 2012. I should do a more in-depth post on this situation … Rizzo mentioned at the press conference a “flaw” in Jackson’s delivery that they’ve identified; its not often you invest $11M into a guy just to say he’s flawed. But the splits are pretty obvious: As noted by Joe Lemire with no-one on base the league had an astounding .868 OPS (slash line: .339/.390/.478) against Jackson but with runners on that figure dropped to .665 (slash line: .239/.292/.373). However most every other pitcher in the league experiences the reverse of this situation, faring better out of the wind-up than from the stretch. Maybe Jackson needs to pitch from the stretch all the time…. For context, a Batting Average Against (BAA) of .239 for an entire season would have ranked Jackson around 30th for all qualified Starters in the league, better than supposed Aces Matt Garza and Zack Greinke. Maybe we didn’t get a 4th starter; maybe we got something close to a #2 starter in disguise.
Very good Nats starting pitching option analysis post Jackson acquisition from David Shoenfield, who does some trade analysis for Lannan and comes up with some good options. And Joe Lemire does a 5-point analysis of the Nats and concludes
Si.com‘s very detailed article on Venezuelan baseball, safety concerns and details on the Wilson Ramos kidnapping case.
A link to try out for the Racing Presidents.

Free Agents/Player Transaction News

Reports from both Craig Calcaterra and Jon Heyman that JD Drew may retire based on the lack of interest this off-season. See, I have a big problem with this. Drew’s career numbers are very under-rated; he’s got a career .873 OPS and a career 125 OPS+. Yes he tailed off badly in 2011, and has struggled with injuries the past several seasons; but look at his OBP figures; he could be the solution to the Nats outfield problem! I think I need to write a post on this.

Hall of Fame leftovers

More interesting Jack Morris articles; this one talking about the fact that he was the “winningest pitcher” of the 80s. Which he was, by a fairly large margin (20 wins if memory serves). Here’s the pertinent fact: EVERY single pitcher who has led a “decade” in wins is in the Hall of Fame, prior to Morris and the 80s. The leader for the 90s was Greg Maddox, who may become the first unanimous first ballot hall of famer (unless of course someone makes a “statement” vote by mailing in a blank ballot or something stupid). The leader for the 2000 decade? Andy Pettitte, who I think will struggle to make the Hall just as Morris has. Now, does this mean that Morris and Pettitte are automatically hall of famers by virtue of leading their decades? No, probably not, but just because a pitcher is a “borderline” candidate doesn’t mean they don’t deserve consideration. I’ll bet we’ll be arguing about Pettitte the same way we’re arguing about Morris in about 10 year’s time. The other interesting takeaway from this article was this google doc spreadsheet, where someone went through and calculated the leader of every 10-year period to see how the “leader of the decade” worked on rolling 10 year scales. You’re hard pressed to find a non-hall of fame pitcher on this rolling scale no matter what the 10 year period.
An interesting article that says that certain legendary hitters are “overrated” when looking at career WAR. This is something I’ve been saying for years, especially with those that think Bert Blyleven is one of the best pitchers ever to play the game. WAR is an accumulator stat, overrating mediocre-but-extremely-healthy players who rack up a ton of stats over time. My simple case in point: Blyleven’s career WAR of 87.6 ranks him 44th of all time, while Pedro Martinez‘s career WAR is 73.5. Anyone who looks at me with a straight face and says that Blyleven therefore is a better pitcher than Martinez needs to consider both this article and my statement. Stats are what they are; they are tools that help people analyze and consider behaviors. They’re not be-all, end-all statements.
The above article led me to create this interesting trivia question; what baseball player has the highest career WAR but who is not enshrined in the Hall of Fame (counting these caveats; the player can’t be currently active, pre-Hall of Fame eligible or currently ON the hall of fame ballot)? The answer is Bill Dahlen, with a career WAR of 75.9 and who played from 1891 to 1911. He played mostly short stop, which explains why his WAR is so high considering his career OPS+ of 109. Pete Rose, coincidentally, is just behind him on the career WAR leaderboard and would probably be most people’s guess.

General Baseball News

Adam Dunn talks about his “one stupid year” in 2011 to the Chicago Sun-Times (h/t to Craig Calcaterra). I do feel sorry for Dunn, who seems to have caught a perfect storm of adjustments (switching leagues, switching teams, switching positions, moving cities and going to a unique on-field manager just to name a few) just at the wrong time, leading to his historically bad season. I hope he figures out what he needs to do to return to his prior form.
Interesting NYTimes article by Tyler Kepner (h/t to Calcaterra again) on the Identity Fraud problem for baseball players in the DR. This of course is a follow up to the latest scandal, this time involving all-star Cleveland pitcher Fausto Carmona, or as we now know his real name to be Roberto Hernandez Heredia. He paid off someone 3 years younger to assume his identity, and was outed when he stopped paying the bribe. (side note: if you pay someone to help you do something illegal … chances are you’ll probably be outed on your illegal behavior 100% of the time if you remove the sole incentive for keeping that person quiet. Duh). Anyway; the interesting takeaway here was the anonymous quote that more than “a dozen such cases” could soon get exposed. I hate anonymous quotes like this, but on this topic it isn’t surprising. Age disputes have dogged Albert Pujols for years (though I doubt them personally; if he really is 2-3 years older than he says, then he would have been a MUCH bigger prospect out of high school).
An article at Cleveland.com (but which is of severe interest to Washington fans as we re-negotiate our MASN deal) talking about Regional Sports Network TV money highlights an interesting point that nearly every team in a major market soon will have tens of millions more dollars in their pocket, thanks to renegotiated TV deals. We squawk about how the big market teams over spend now? How about when suddenly teams that are “mid-market” but spending $100M on payroll get an extra $30-$40M to play with? I wonder if the solution for the betterment of the sport (considering that a team in a small market like Milwaukee only gets about $12M total in TV money) is going to be to go to a NFL-style TV revenue model where all 30 teams share the same pool equally. That last sentence of course will never happen; the Steinbrenner family isn’t about to give up HUNDREDS of millions of dollars of their own money to help tight-fisted owners in other cities pad their bottom line.
I hate seeing this story blown so far out of proportion: Josh Hamilton had “a few drinks” at a bar and now there’s headlines talking about a “relapse” and holier than thou stories about how this is going to cost him tens of millions of dollars. This post on sbnation.com asks the right question; “Is this any of our business?” I had 3-4 drinks one night at dinner last week; am I I a relapsed alcoholic? Of course not. I guess this is the price of fame.

General News; other

Months ago, when Tyler Hamilton had his gripping appearance disclosing all sorts of supposedly incriminating facts about Lance Armstrong on 60-minutes I had a rather heated discussion over email with some fellow sports-fanatic fans talking about whether that interview was really “proof” of Armstrong’s having cheated his way to 7 tour de France wins. I guess not: Federal prosecutors closed the inquiry into Armstrong after a 2-year witch hunt. I was much more vehement on this topic before but my general stance is this; Armstrong took hundreds of drug tests in his life and never ONCE tested positive. There’s allegations of cheating by former teammates who themselves lied about cheating (and were eventually caught), and there’s allegations of covered-up tests (which can’t be corroborated), and there’s rumors and innuendo. But nowhere, ever, has anyone actually found anything close to concrete “proof” that Armstrong cheated. So to anyone who still thinks he’s a cheater, I’ll say this: “Innocent until proven guilty.” And nobody will ever find any proof, because (as is noted in this column) if Jeff Novitzky couldn’t find the proof, nobody will.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7533216/edwin-jackson-agrees-washington-nationals

Written by Todd Boss

February 11th, 2012 at 1:12 pm

Ask Boswell 1/9/12 edition

6 comments

Tired of Prince Fielder rumors yet? Photo: AP/Morry Gash

Here’s Tom Boswell‘s weekly Monday chat on 11/28/11. Of the baseball questions he took, here’s how I’d have answered them. With the Wizard’s 0-8 start there’s a lot of kvetching about NBA.

As always, questions are edited for clarity and I write my own answer prior to reading his.

Q: What is your “take” on Ross Detwiler and could he become a better pitcher than Gio Gonzalez?

A: My “take” on Ross Detwiler is that he’s too frail to stay healthy long enough to be counted on for heavy-duty innings, and that he throws too much across his body to get his breaking stuff to work properly. Now, throwing across your body isn’t a bad thing (see Johnson, Randy) but Detwiler’s never been consistent long enough to be anything more than an emergency/late season starter for this team. Can he be better than Gio Gonzalez? Not really; Gonzalez is only a year older but has 60 more MLB starts, an all-star appearance and the talent to win 20 games in the AL. If Detwiler was really that promising … we wouldn’t have acquired Gonzalez in the first place. Boswell says the team likes Detwiler, but Johnson likes a lefty heavy rotation in this division. But the team already has 5 starters signed to major league contracts, so I can’t see how Detwiler wins anything more than a bullpen spot.

Q: Is Prince Fielder really coming here? Why is there so little market for him?

A: I’ll answer the 2nd part first; there’s so little market for Prince Fielder for several reasons.

If you look at the top payroll clubs, basically every team either has a long-term 1B commitment (names like Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Paul Konerko, Justin Morneau, and Miguel Cabrera) or is dealing with topped-out payroll or financial issues (Mets, Giants, Dodgers) that are preventing them from purchasing a big-money star. So lots of your usual suspects are out. He’s left trying to convince mostly 2nd-tier payroll clubs to spend like first tier clubs.
His agent Scott Boras is generally the “lets wait and try to build a crescendo of rumors” type of agent. It has clearly worked in the past … but it doesn’t seem to be working now. I think Boras’ strategy has run its course to a certain extent and teams are wary of the “mystery team” in on these major players.
Fielder isn’t exactly an adonis of a physical specimen. He’s got a bad body, hasn’t really shown that he can control his weight, and has a pretty good barometer of his future physical condition in the form of his MLB playing father Cecil Fielder. Prince may be young and may clearly be a top5 hitter in the league, but teams are not going to want to put up 8 year commitments for a player who may be washed up by the time he’s 34. To make matters worse, Prince is a below-average first baseman AND only a handful of teams have available money and available DH spots.

Frankly, I think Prince needs to sign a shorter term deal with high AAV, get a team like the Nats to commit and then re-hit the FA market at age 30-31 when he’ll still have value.

Now, is he coming to the Nats? If I was Mike Rizzo i’d sign him in a heartbeat for 3yrs/$75M. I’d balk at an 8-year deal. But, the rumors persist and have been swirling for more than 2 weeks. So where there’s heat, there’s likely fire. Boswell says that the key date is Jan 18th, the day that the Rangers either sign or cut bait on Yu Darvish. If the Rangers suddenly have $120M that they didn’t think they’d have yesterday, they will sign Fielder.

Q: Baseball is set to announce their HOf inductees for 2012 today. Anyone you feel strongly about that should get in? What are your thoughts on Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly?

A: (note that I’m writing this BEFORE the 3pm announcement, so by the time you read this we’ll know who got in and who didn’t)

Who I believe WILL get elected: Barry Larkin

Who I believe SHOULD be in the Hall: Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris, Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Edgar Martinez.

What do I think about Murphy and Mattingly? Both suffer from more or less the same issue: they were both great players for very short amounts of time. Murphy was a better player all in all than we remembered and for four seasons (82-86) was probably THE best player in the game. Mattingly retired at 33 and was solid but had the same 4-year excellence followed by less flashy seasons. They’re good players who weren’t transcendent enough to get their own plaques in Cooperstown. Boswell mostly agrees with the above.

Q: What do you think of this scenario: Fielder signs elsewhere, LaRoche starts out hot, we flip him to Tampa for Upton as Harper takes over in RF and Morse moves to 1B.

A: Sounds great. Except that this scenario really only serves the perfect world desires of the Nationals. In reality LaRoche is a slow starter and we may really hear the boo-birds early. Morse was great in 2011 but most predict a sliding back. Harper probably needs some MLB adjustment time. We’ll see what happens. Boswell likes this scenario. Sure, who wouldn’t? But it does sound a bit too convenient.

Q: Is there ANY chance Boras goes for something like 3yrs/$75mil for Prince?

A: Yeah, I think there is a chance, as described above. He’ll push for longer though until the last possible minute, so this won’t play out for a while and we’ll continue to hear rumors for weeks. Boswell says it’ll “never happen.” And lays out a doomsday payroll scenario for the team. Which I don’t entirely buy; we’ve been at $60-65M in payroll for 6 years … despite being in a very wealthy market. At some point, this team will be good, will draw fans to the park and will increase revenues. And the payroll should rise to reflect that.

Q: Where are the Nats finding the (approximately) 60 runs they’ll need to add (assuming pitching stays constant) in order to go from 80 to 90 wins?

A: A good question. Some from Zimmerman, some from LaRoche, some from natural improvements from Desmond, Espinosa, and Ramos, and some from a rebound year from Werth. That’s a LOT of assumpions. Fielder would *really* help in the run creation department (he created 35 more runs than Morse last year … that’d be 5-6 wins all by himself). Boswell echos much of the above.

Q: Where do you (as an assumed HoFame voter) draw the line between admitted and suspected when it comes to steroids and the HOF?

A: If it were me, I’d go based on existing evidence. That’s all you can do. And the Mitchell Report is not really “evidence,” but more heresay and he said-she said. So Palmeiro and McGwire have some warts. Bagwell does not and it is generally unfair to lump him into the steroid-poster boy club. Boswell agrees with the above … too bad he doesn’t have a vote to defend year after year.

Q: Given what we now know about the Steroid era, is there any reason to suspect Cal Ripken of using?

A: (The allegation also being that Ripken was friends with Brady Anderson, whose 50 homer season seems awfully suspicious in hind-sight). Nobody’s ever said a word about Ripken and PEDs. You have to think he was well aware of his legacy the closer he got to 2130 games. I’d be shocked if he was shown to be a user. Him and Derek Jeter would be probably the two most shocking PED revelations in the history of the game, if they turned out to be true. Boswell doesn’t think Ripken profiled to a typical user.

Q: Why isn’t there more narrative about how the Werth contract is really killing this team, when considering the future payroll implications of having Werth, Zimmerman and Fielder potentially signed to long term, $20M+ AAV contracts?

A: I’m sure it is internally. It certainly is everywhere else in the blogosphere. The Werth contract is pretty indefensible, certainly was at the time it was signed and is even more so now. I just hope the guy has a bounce back season and really contributes.

Q: How does the TV money rise so much in the MASN deal? Aren’t viewer numbers abhorrent?

A: Good question. I don’t know. Boswell has the answer; the contract is tied not to revenues or ad money, but to comparable RSN sizes in other markets. And right now Houston and Dallas (our two closest sized cities) get 2-3 TIMES the money out of their RSNs. I cackle at watching Angelos have to write checks to the Nats, but really wish they’d cancel the contract altogether. I hate the fact that we’re enriching Angelos day after day.

Q: Why do the HoFame voters suddenly agree to induct a player? If he’s good enough on the first ballot, he should be good enough on any ballot.

A: Because there’s a cache to being a “First Ballot Hall of Famer” and LOTS of voters exclude guys on the first vote as a result. There’s never been a unanimous selection, and there never will be. But there’s plenty of guys who were very good players who got in on #2 or #3 ballot. Guys like Blyleven and Rice who languish for a decade on the ballot are rare. Boswell agrees.

Q: Is Toronto a more likely landing spot for Fielder, since they were all-in for Darvish and lost out?

A: Makes sense frankly. They could be sensing weakness in the Boston and Yankees lack of activity this off-season … Boswell says it makes sense but makes a good point; does Fielder want to commit to Toronto, knowing they’ll get outspent year after year by Boston and New York? Does he commit to a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the divisions split? Would you?

Q: How similar is Harper’s call-up situation to Mickey Mantle’s situation?

A: Not very. Completely different baseball climates. Harper has his millions already, and there’s very specific service time implications. Mantle played under the reserve clause, there was no service time issues, no arbitration, no free agency. So the Yankees could do whatever they wanted with him year after year. Boswell doesn’t really comment.

Q: Does Fielder make sense if the Nats are planning on building a cost-controlled dynasty? The 1998 yankees didn’t have any 30-homer players, let alone a big bopper at $25M/year.

A: Fair. Lots of Nats bloggers keep coming back to the payroll implications of Werth, extending Zimmerman and buying Fielder. And they’re fair. That doesn’t even talk about what to do with other big-time stars we have to deal with potentially. But i’ll respond by saying this; we don’t KNOW what the owner’s payroll limits are. All we have to go by is the past payroll figures. What if this team is just biding its time before blowing out payroll to $120M? Boswell says this is well put and signs off.

Written by Todd Boss

January 11th, 2012 at 10:22 am

Nationals Arm Race

Archive for the ‘wilson ramos’ tag

Possible 2013 WBC Nationals participants?

Ladson’s Inbox: 11/16/12 edition

Nats Arbitration Decisions/Non-Tender deadline 2012; my predictions

Nationals Players’ Service Time and Option Status for 2013

September callups and the pending Nats Roster crunch

Ladson’s Inbox: 10/22/12 edition

Nats Franchise Trade history; biggest, best, worst

Ask Boswell 3/5/12

Nats Off-season News Items Wrap-up 2/11/12 edition

Ask Boswell 1/9/12 edition

Links I use Frequently

NatsArmRace Creations

z MLB Legal

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